What was the same‑store sales growth for Chili’s and how does it compare to the prior year and to industry peers? | EAT (Aug 13, 2025) | Candlesense
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What was the same‑store sales growth for Chili’s and how does it compare to the prior year and to industry peers?

Same‑store sales performance

  • Chili’s (Brinker International) reported +5 % same‑store sales growth in Q4 FY2025 versus the same period a year earlier.
  • Prior‑year comparison: The Q4 2024 period was essentially flat (≈0 % change), so the 5 % increase represents a clear acceleration in comparable‑store traffic and spend.
  • Industry peers: Competitors that rely heavily on comparable‑store metrics—Darden (Olive Garden) and Bloomin’ Brands (P.F. Chang’s)—were still down ≈2 % and ≈1 %, respectively, in the same quarter. Chili’s out‑performed the broader casual‑dining set by roughly 6–7 percentage points.

Trading implications

The 5 % same‑store lift signals that Chili’s brand‑level demand is gaining momentum while peers remain stuck in a post‑pandemic consumption lag. This top‑line tailwind, combined with Brinker’s solid margin expansion and a bullish FY2026 outlook, suggests the stock could see 2–3 % upside on a short‑to‑mid‑term basis, especially if the trend holds into FY2026. From a technical standpoint, the shares have broken above their 200‑day moving average and are testing the $70‑$72 resistance zone; a bounce above $72 would position the price for a run toward the $78–80 range. Conversely, a pull‑back below the 200‑day line could open a retest of the $65 support level.

Actionable take‑away: With Chili’s showing the strongest same‑store growth in the sector, a long position (or adding to existing exposure) is justified on a fundamental basis, while keeping a tight stop just below the 200‑day moving average (~$68) to guard against a broader market correction.

Other Questions About This News

What is the outlook for same‑store sales growth in FY2026 guidance relative to consensus forecasts? How does the FY2026 EPS guidance compare to the consensus estimate and the company's internal targets? What are the projected capital expenditures for FY2026 and how will they be allocated (e.g., new restaurant openings, remodels, technology)? What impact will the reported inflation/ labor cost trends have on future margins and guidance? Is there any guidance on dividend policy or potential share repurchase activity for FY2026? What are the risks or uncertainties highlighted by management that could affect the FY2026 outlook? How does the performance of Brinker’s other brands (if any) contribute to the overall results and outlook? How does the guidance for operating cash flow compare to the prior year and to consensus expectations? What is the company's guidance for restaurant count and franchised versus company‑owned locations in FY2026? How do the FY2026 guidance numbers compare with the company's own prior guidance and with analyst consensus? What are the expected impacts of macro‑economic factors (e.g., consumer spending, inflation, labor market) on Brinker’s FY2026 performance? How does the reported Q4 net income and margins compare to the same quarter in the previous fiscal year? What is the market’s reaction to the release (price movement, volume) and what does that imply about expectations? How does the company's valuation (e.g., P/E, EV/EBITDA) look after the earnings release and guidance? Are there any notable changes in the company's strategic initiatives (e.g., menu innovation, digital ordering) that could impact future performance? What are the specific assumptions behind the FY2026 guidance (e.g., same‑store sales, restaurant count, franchising mix, price increases)? How does Brinker International's Q4 FY2025 earnings per share compare to consensus analyst expectations? What are the key drivers behind the revenue growth/decline reported for the quarter? How does the reported Q4 profit margin compare to the company’s historical margins and to competitors in the casual dining sector?