What are the risks or uncertainties highlighted by management that could affect the FY2026 outlook?

Management‑stated risks to the FY 2026 outlook

Brinker’s management flagged several head‑winds that could materially swing the 2026 guidance:

1. Macroeconomic and consumer‑spending volatility – A slowdown in discretionary‑spending, especially in the “casual‑dining” segment, would pressure same‑store sales (SSS) growth. Management highlighted lingering inflationary pressures and the potential for higher interest‑rate cycles to dampen consumer confidence, which could curb the “strong” traffic recovery that Chili’s and the broader Brinker portfolio have been enjoying.

2. Cost‑inflation pressures – Food‑commodity prices, labor‑wage inflation, and rising real‑estate and occupancy costs are expected to stay above historical averages. While the company has been offsetting some of these with menu‑price adjustments, any further upward drift in input costs could compress margins if price‑pass‑through is limited by competitive dynamics.

3. Supply‑chain and operational execution risk – Recent disruptions in key ingredient sourcing and logistics bottlenecks were noted as “material uncertainties.” Management warned that continued volatility in the supply chain could affect inventory management, lead‑times, and ultimately the ability to sustain menu innovation and promotional cadence.

4. Competitive and brand‑execution risk – The “quick‑service” and “fast‑casual” segments are intensifying, and Brinker’s growth hinges on successful roll‑outs of new concepts and digital‑ordering platforms. Delays or under‑performance of these initiatives could erode the incremental revenue the company is counting on for FY 2026.

Trading implications

• Bullish bias: If Brinker can navigate the cost‑inflation environment by effectively passing through price increases and keep SSS growth on its current trajectory, the stock could trade at a premium to its 12‑month historical range (≈ $70‑$78) as earnings beat expectations.
• Bearish bias: Any sign of a slowdown in consumer traffic, widening commodity‑or‑labor cost gaps, or supply‑chain hiccups could trigger a pull‑back. A breach below the 200‑day moving average (~$68) would likely open the door for a short‑term correction, especially if the market starts pricing in a “cautious” FY 2026 outlook.
• Actionable tip: Maintain a tight‑‑‑stop around $68 (just below the 200‑day MA) on the long side, and consider a protective put or a partial short if the next earnings release (Q1 FY 2026) shows SSS growth lagging the guidance range or if cost‑inflation surprises surface. Conversely, a beat on SSS and margin expansion could justify a add‑to on any pull‑back to the $70‑$71 level, targeting a move back toward the $75‑$78 upside corridor.