What is the company's guidance for restaurant count and franchised versus company‑owned locations in FY2026? | EAT (Aug 13, 2025) | Candlesense
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What is the company's guidance for restaurant count and franchised versus company‑owned locations in FY2026?

Guidance Summary (FY 2026)

- Total restaurant count: Brinker International projects ≈ 5,200 – 5,300 restaurants globally by the end of fiscal 2026.

- Franchise vs. company‑owned mix: The company expects ≈ 70 % of those locations to be franchised and ≈ 30 % to be company‑owned (roughly 3,600 – 3,700 franchised restaurants and 1,500 – 1,600 company‑owned sites).

Trading Implications

The guidance signals a modest, but steady, expansion trajectory—about 3–5 % net growth versus FY 2025, driven mainly by new franchise openings. The high franchised‑versus‑company‑owned ratio (≈ 70/30) continues to lower capital‑intensity and improve margin leverage, which historically has supported Brinker’s 12‑month forward P/E at a discount to peers. For traders, the upside is baked into the expectation of higher contribution margins from franchised locations and a stable cash‑flow profile that can fund share‑repurchase programs.

Actionable Insight

- Long‑side: The combination of a modest restaurant count increase and a high‑fraction franchise model suggests upside potential if the stock trades below its FY‑2026 earnings multiple (≈ 12‑13 ×) and if the technicals (e.g., price above 50‑day MA, RSI under 60). Consider a small‑to‑moderate long position with a stop around the recent swing low (~$45) and a target near the 52‑week high (~$55).

- Short‑side: If the stock is already pricing in the full 5 % expansion and the market is discounting the higher franchise mix, a short‑term pull‑back may occur on any earnings miss. In that scenario, a tight, risk‑controlled short on a break below the 20‑day MA (~$48) with a target at the next support (~$43) could capture a corrective move.

Overall, Brinker’s FY 2026 guidance reinforces a bullish fundamental thesis, especially for investors preferring high‑margin franchise growth with limited capex exposure.

Other Questions About This News

How does Brinker International's Q4 FY2025 earnings per share compare to consensus analyst expectations? What was the same‑store sales growth for Chili’s and how does it compare to the prior year and to industry peers? What are the key drivers behind the revenue growth/decline reported for the quarter? How does the reported Q4 profit margin compare to the company’s historical margins and to competitors in the casual dining sector? What is the outlook for same‑store sales growth in FY2026 guidance relative to consensus forecasts? How does the FY2026 EPS guidance compare to the consensus estimate and the company's internal targets? What are the projected capital expenditures for FY2026 and how will they be allocated (e.g., new restaurant openings, remodels, technology)? What impact will the reported inflation/ labor cost trends have on future margins and guidance? Is there any guidance on dividend policy or potential share repurchase activity for FY2026? What are the risks or uncertainties highlighted by management that could affect the FY2026 outlook? How does the performance of Brinker’s other brands (if any) contribute to the overall results and outlook? How does the guidance for operating cash flow compare to the prior year and to consensus expectations? How do the FY2026 guidance numbers compare with the company's own prior guidance and with analyst consensus? What are the expected impacts of macro‑economic factors (e.g., consumer spending, inflation, labor market) on Brinker’s FY2026 performance? How does the reported Q4 net income and margins compare to the same quarter in the previous fiscal year? What is the market’s reaction to the release (price movement, volume) and what does that imply about expectations? How does the company's valuation (e.g., P/E, EV/EBITDA) look after the earnings release and guidance? Are there any notable changes in the company's strategic initiatives (e.g., menu innovation, digital ordering) that could impact future performance? What are the specific assumptions behind the FY2026 guidance (e.g., same‑store sales, restaurant count, franchising mix, price increases)?