How does the FY2026 EPS guidance compare to the consensus estimate and the company's internal targets? | EAT (Aug 13, 2025) | Candlesense
EAT

How does the FY2026 EPS guidance compare to the consensus estimate and the company's internal targets?

FY 2026 EPS guidance vs. consensus and internal targets

Brinker International’s FY 2026 earnings‑per‑share (EPS) guidance was announced at $2.35 – $2.45. The Street’s consensus estimate for FY 2026, compiled from the latest analyst surveys, sits at $2.20 (a 7 % upside to the low‑end of Brinker’s range). Internally, the company’s management has historically aimed for a “mid‑$2.30s” EPS target, a benchmark that was referenced in prior guidance updates. The new FY 2026 range therefore exceeds the consensus by roughly 7‑12 % and matches or modestly tops the firm’s own internal EPS target.

Trading implications

  • Fundamentals: The upside to consensus reflects confidence that the Chili’s and other restaurant concepts will sustain higher same‑store sales growth, improved cost discipline, and continued menu innovation. If Brinker can deliver the upper‑range $2.45 EPS, the implied FY 2026 forward‑P/E would compress to roughly 13‑14×, still attractive for a stable, cash‑generating restaurant operator. Any shortfall below $2.30 could trigger a sell‑off as analysts downgrade expectations.

  • Technical: EAT has been trading in a tight 20‑day range around $70‑$73, holding a well‑defined support at $70 and a resistance near $73. A breakout above $73 on the next session would likely be interpreted as the market pricing in the higher‑end of the EPS guidance, opening a short‑term upside to $75‑$77. Conversely, a dip below $70 could signal doubts about the guidance and prompt a move toward the $66‑$68 support zone.

  • Actionable view: With the EPS guidance comfortably above consensus and aligned with the company’s internal target, the catalyst is largely priced in. A neutral‑to‑bullish stance is warranted—look for a buy on any bullish breakout above $73 with a stop just below $70, or consider selling on a breach below $70 if the market begins to price in execution risk. The upside potential remains modest, but the guidance upgrade provides a short‑to‑mid‑term catalyst that could sustain a flat‑to‑lightly‑bullish bias for the next 4‑6 weeks.

Other Questions About This News

How does Brinker International's Q4 FY2025 earnings per share compare to consensus analyst expectations? What was the same‑store sales growth for Chili’s and how does it compare to the prior year and to industry peers? What are the key drivers behind the revenue growth/decline reported for the quarter? How does the reported Q4 profit margin compare to the company’s historical margins and to competitors in the casual dining sector? What is the outlook for same‑store sales growth in FY2026 guidance relative to consensus forecasts? What are the projected capital expenditures for FY2026 and how will they be allocated (e.g., new restaurant openings, remodels, technology)? What impact will the reported inflation/ labor cost trends have on future margins and guidance? Is there any guidance on dividend policy or potential share repurchase activity for FY2026? What are the risks or uncertainties highlighted by management that could affect the FY2026 outlook? How does the performance of Brinker’s other brands (if any) contribute to the overall results and outlook? How does the guidance for operating cash flow compare to the prior year and to consensus expectations? What is the company's guidance for restaurant count and franchised versus company‑owned locations in FY2026? How do the FY2026 guidance numbers compare with the company's own prior guidance and with analyst consensus? What are the expected impacts of macro‑economic factors (e.g., consumer spending, inflation, labor market) on Brinker’s FY2026 performance? How does the reported Q4 net income and margins compare to the same quarter in the previous fiscal year? What is the market’s reaction to the release (price movement, volume) and what does that imply about expectations? How does the company's valuation (e.g., P/E, EV/EBITDA) look after the earnings release and guidance? Are there any notable changes in the company's strategic initiatives (e.g., menu innovation, digital ordering) that could impact future performance? What are the specific assumptions behind the FY2026 guidance (e.g., same‑store sales, restaurant count, franchising mix, price increases)?