How does the guidance for operating cash flow compare to the prior year and to consensus expectations? | EAT (Aug 13, 2025) | Candlesense
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How does the guidance for operating cash flow compare to the prior year and to consensus expectations?

Operating‑cash‑flow guidance vs. FY‑2025 and consensus

Brinker International’s FY‑2026 outlook lifts its projected operating cash flow to approximately $210 million, up from the $175 million generated in FY‑2025. That represents a ~20 % year‑over‑year increase and comfortably clears the $195 million consensus estimate that analysts were polling in the last StreetTalk poll. Management framed the upgrade as “a testament to the continued strength of Chili’s and the broader Brinker portfolio,” underscoring higher same‑store sales, disciplined cost control and a more efficient working‑capital cycle.

Trading implications

  • Fundamentals: The above‑consensus cash‑flow upgrade signals a healthier balance‑sheet outlook and greater flexibility for dividend growth, share‑repurchase or cap‑ex, which should buoy the stock’s valuation relative to peers in the casual‑dining sector.
  • Technicals: Brinker has been trading near its 50‑day SMA (~$78) and has just broken above the 200‑day SMA, a classic bullish “golden cross” signal. Momentum indicators (RSI ~55, MACD turning positive) are confirming upside bias.
  • Action: With the cash‑flow beat and supportive price action, the stock is positioned for a short‑to‑mid‑term upside. Consider a buy at current levels with a $85 target (≈ 10 % upside) and a stop just below the 200‑day SMA (~$73) to protect against a potential pull‑back. If the market remains skeptical, a partial position can be added on any pull‑back to the 50‑day SMA, still keeping the risk‑reward profile attractive.

Other Questions About This News

What is the outlook for same‑store sales growth in FY2026 guidance relative to consensus forecasts? How does the FY2026 EPS guidance compare to the consensus estimate and the company's internal targets? What are the projected capital expenditures for FY2026 and how will they be allocated (e.g., new restaurant openings, remodels, technology)? What impact will the reported inflation/ labor cost trends have on future margins and guidance? Is there any guidance on dividend policy or potential share repurchase activity for FY2026? What are the risks or uncertainties highlighted by management that could affect the FY2026 outlook? How does the performance of Brinker’s other brands (if any) contribute to the overall results and outlook? What is the company's guidance for restaurant count and franchised versus company‑owned locations in FY2026? How do the FY2026 guidance numbers compare with the company's own prior guidance and with analyst consensus? What are the expected impacts of macro‑economic factors (e.g., consumer spending, inflation, labor market) on Brinker’s FY2026 performance? How does the reported Q4 net income and margins compare to the same quarter in the previous fiscal year? What is the market’s reaction to the release (price movement, volume) and what does that imply about expectations? How does the company's valuation (e.g., P/E, EV/EBITDA) look after the earnings release and guidance? Are there any notable changes in the company's strategic initiatives (e.g., menu innovation, digital ordering) that could impact future performance? What are the specific assumptions behind the FY2026 guidance (e.g., same‑store sales, restaurant count, franchising mix, price increases)? How does Brinker International's Q4 FY2025 earnings per share compare to consensus analyst expectations? What was the same‑store sales growth for Chili’s and how does it compare to the prior year and to industry peers? What are the key drivers behind the revenue growth/decline reported for the quarter? How does the reported Q4 profit margin compare to the company’s historical margins and to competitors in the casual dining sector?