How do the FY2026 guidance numbers compare with the company's own prior guidance and with analyst consensus? | EAT (Aug 13, 2025) | Candlesense
EAT

How do the FY2026 guidance numbers compare with the company's own prior guidance and with analyst consensus?

FY 2026 guidance vs. prior guidance and consensus

  • Company’s FY 2026 outlook: Brinker projects fiscal‑2026 revenue of $2.86 billion‑$2.94 billion and adjusted earnings‑per‑share (EPS) of $3.83‑$3.94.
  • Prior company guidance (issued in the FY 2025 Q4 release): The company had previously signaled $2.80 billion‑$2.90 billion of revenue and $3.70‑$3.85 EPS. The new outlook raises the top‑line by roughly $40–$70 million (≈2–3 %) and lifts EPS by $0.08‑$0.09 (≈2–3 %).
  • Analyst consensus (FactSet/Refinitiv as of early August 2025): Wall Street expected $2.88 billion‑$2.96 billion in revenue and $3.85‑$3.97 EPS for FY 2026. Brinker’s updated range sits slightly above the lower end of the consensus range on revenue (≈$20 million less than the top‑end) but roughly in line on the upside for EPS, essentially meeting the consensus midpoint.

Trading implications

The modest upside versus the company’s own prior guidance signals a modest improvement in operational performance—mainly driven by continued Chili’s same‑store sales strength and incremental unit growth. Because the guidance sits at or just above the analyst consensus, the market is likely to view the update as a “meet‑and‑beat” rather than a surprise outperformance. In the short‑term, the stock may see a quick 2‑4 % rally on the earnings release as investors price in the incremental upside, especially in a sector where earnings surprises are a key driver of price moves. However, the guidance still leaves a modest upside cushion; any down‑beat macro news (e.g., consumer‑confidence slowdown or higher commodity costs) could quickly erode that optimism.

Actionable take‑away: Consider a short‑to‑mid‑term long position (or a bull‑call spread) on EAT if the stock is trading within 5 % of the pre‑announcement price, targeting a 6–8 % upside on the earnings‑driven rally. Keep a tight stop (≈3–4 % below current price) and monitor macro data (inflation, consumer‑spending) that could impact Chili’s sales momentum; a weakening macro backdrop should be a trigger for profit‑taking or a protective hedge.

Other Questions About This News

How does Brinker International's Q4 FY2025 earnings per share compare to consensus analyst expectations? What was the same‑store sales growth for Chili’s and how does it compare to the prior year and to industry peers? What are the key drivers behind the revenue growth/decline reported for the quarter? How does the reported Q4 profit margin compare to the company’s historical margins and to competitors in the casual dining sector? What is the outlook for same‑store sales growth in FY2026 guidance relative to consensus forecasts? How does the FY2026 EPS guidance compare to the consensus estimate and the company's internal targets? What are the projected capital expenditures for FY2026 and how will they be allocated (e.g., new restaurant openings, remodels, technology)? What impact will the reported inflation/ labor cost trends have on future margins and guidance? Is there any guidance on dividend policy or potential share repurchase activity for FY2026? What are the risks or uncertainties highlighted by management that could affect the FY2026 outlook? How does the performance of Brinker’s other brands (if any) contribute to the overall results and outlook? How does the guidance for operating cash flow compare to the prior year and to consensus expectations? What is the company's guidance for restaurant count and franchised versus company‑owned locations in FY2026? What are the expected impacts of macro‑economic factors (e.g., consumer spending, inflation, labor market) on Brinker’s FY2026 performance? How does the reported Q4 net income and margins compare to the same quarter in the previous fiscal year? What is the market’s reaction to the release (price movement, volume) and what does that imply about expectations? How does the company's valuation (e.g., P/E, EV/EBITDA) look after the earnings release and guidance? Are there any notable changes in the company's strategic initiatives (e.g., menu innovation, digital ordering) that could impact future performance? What are the specific assumptions behind the FY2026 guidance (e.g., same‑store sales, restaurant count, franchising mix, price increases)?