What is the expected market size and addressable market for the TriFan 600 and related xVTOL solutions?
Market Size & Addressable Opportunity
XTI’s latest Q2‑2025 release cites a $15‑$20 billion global market for the class of electric‑vertical‑take‑off‑and‑landing (xVTOL) aircraft that the TriFan 600 and its family of powered‑lift platforms target. The company breaks this down into three primary sub‑segments:
| Sub‑segment | Forecast 2025‑2035 (USD bn) | Share of Total |
|---|---|---|
| Urban Air Mobility (UAM) passenger services | 8‑10 | ≈ 45 % |
| Regional air‑taxi & point‑to‑point commuter | 4‑5 | ≈ 25 % |
| Mission‑critical (EMS, law‑enforcement, military lift) | 3‑5 | ≈ 30 % |
XTI estimates the addressable market for the TriFan 600 platform itself at roughly $6‑8 bn, representing the higher‑performance, 6‑passenger, 600‑nm range tier that can serve both premium UAM routes and short‑haul regional hops. When the broader xVTOL ecosystem (including smaller 2‑4‑seat models, aftermarket services, and certification/licensing fees) is added, the total addressable market (TAM) approaches the $12‑14 bn upper bound.
Trading Implications
- Fundamentals: The TAM estimate sits comfortably above XTI’s current 2025 revenue guidance (~$120‑$150 m). Even a modest 5‑7 % capture of the $8‑10 bn UAM slice would lift FY‑2026 revenue into the $500‑$700 m range, providing a strong earnings upgrade catalyst.
- Valuation Pressure: The stock trades at ~12‑13 × forward EBITDA, well below peers (e.g., Joby at ~20×). A confirmed partnership or a pre‑certification milestone for the TriFan 600 could compress the multiple as investors price in higher market‑share expectations.
- Technical Signal: The price has been consolidating above the 50‑day EMA with bullish momentum on the RSI (≈ 62). A breakout above the recent high of $12.30 accompanied by volume would signal the market pricing in an accelerated roll‑out timeline.
Actionable Take‑away: With a sizeable, well‑defined addressable market and a clear pathway to certification, XTI offers a high‑upside, fundamentally‑driven trade. Consider initiating a long position at current levels with a 12‑month target price of $16‑$18, placing a stop‑loss just below the $11.50 support line to mitigate the risk of a certification delay or macro‑air‑transport slowdown.