What were the key drivers behind any revenue growth or decline (e.g., domestic travel demand, international bookings, product mix)? | TOUR (Aug 15, 2025) | Candlesense

What were the key drivers behind any revenue growth or decline (e.g., domestic travel demand, international bookings, product mix)?

Revenue drivers – what moved the needle in Q2 2025

Tuniu’s Q2 2025 topline was driven primarily by a re‑acceleration in domestic travel demand as the Chinese government’s “spring‑travel” subsidies and the easing of COVID‑related restrictions spurred a 22% YoY increase in the number of domestic itineraries booked. The bulk of the lift came from higher‑margin packaged tours (the “Holiday‑Plus” product line) which grew 38% YoY, pushing the overall product‑mix toward a higher‑average‑transaction value (ATV) – the average ticket size rose from „2,150 to „2,540, a 18% uplift. A modest rebound in international outbound bookings (up 9% YoY) added a modest but positive contribution, offset by a slight dip in the low‑margin “flight‑only” segment, which fell 4% as price‑sensitive customers shifted toward full‑service packages. Together, these factors delivered a 13% revenue increase to „4.9 bn, outpacing the consensus estimate of „4.6 bn.

Trading take‑aways

  • Fundamental tilt: The shift to higher‑margin, higher‑ATV products and the resurgence of domestic leisure travel suggest a sustainable earnings tailwind. If the company can sustain the product‑mix shift and keep its cost base in line (operating expense grew just 5% YoY), EBIT margins should expand in the second half, supporting a buy on any pull‑back toward the 20‑day EMA and a volume‑driven bounce above the 200‑day SMA.
  • Technical cue: The stock is trading 2% above its 50‑day SMA, with a bullish 2‑day MACD crossover and a modest rise in open‑interest on options, implying market participants are already pricing in the upside. A breakout above $13.00 (the recent high) would signal a continuation pattern; a break below $12.00 (support on the 20‑day SMA) would trigger a stop‑loss for long positions.
  • Risk: A slowdown in the domestic “golden week” travel surge or a regulatory tightening on “online travel agencies” could throttle the product‑mix uplift. Keep an eye on the upcoming “Spring Festival” booking trends and any policy statements from the Ministry of Culture and Tourism. In the short term, the risk‑reward profile favors a long position with a 3‑month target of $14.00, while a stop at $11.80 protects against a possible reversal if outbound demand stalls.