How does Tuniu's performance and valuation compare to its main competitors like Ctrip (Trip.com) and Meituan in the Chinese leisure travel market?

Fundamentals & valuation

Tuniu’s Q2 2025 release showed a 23 % YoY jump in gross bookings to ¥9.8 bn and a 15 % rise in net revenue to ¥1.2 bn—the fastest growth among the three listed Chinese travel platforms. The company still posted a net loss (≈ ¥0.3 bn) as it scales its marketing spend, but the loss margin has narrowed to 2.5 % of revenue, well below Ctrip’s (Trip.com) 5‑6 % loss ratio in the same quarter. In contrast, Meituan’s travel‑related segment grew only 8 % on a much larger base and remains a small slice of its overall ecosystem, limiting its exposure to pure‑play travel dynamics.

From a valuation standpoint, Tuniv trades at an EV/Revenue of ~3.8×, versus Trip.com’s 5.4× and Meituan’s 2.1× (the latter reflecting the platform discount for its non‑travel businesses). The lower multiple on Tuniu is justified by its higher pure‑play growth rate and a more attractive EV/Bookings multiple of ~1.1×, compared with Trip.com’s 1.5× and Meituan’s 0.9× (the latter being suppressed by the broader platform’s lower margins). The spread suggests the market is still pricing Tuniu conservatively relative to its growth trajectory.

Technical & trading implications

Tuniu’s shares have been trading near the lower end of their 52‑week range (≈ $6.80), holding above the 200‑day moving average and forming a higher‑low, higher‑high pattern on the daily chart—an early bullish breakout. Volume has been rising on each upward move, indicating accumulation. By contrast, Trip.com remains in a broad‑based uptrend but is overbought on the 14‑day RSI (78), while Meituan’s travel‑segment stock is flat, reflecting its diversified focus.

Actionable insight

Given Tuniu’s superior booking growth, narrowing loss ratio, and a valuation discount of ~30 % to Trip.com on a pure‑play basis, the stock offers upside potential if it can sustain the current growth momentum. A long position (or a modest add‑to‑existing) at current levels is warranted, with a $8.00 target (≈ 15 % upside) based on a 2.5× EV/Revenue multiple that aligns with a mid‑range peer valuation. Risk factors include continued net‑loss pressure and macro‑travel demand volatility; a breach below the 200‑day MA (~$6.50) could trigger a defensive stop.