How did Tuniu's Q2 2025 revenue and earnings compare to consensus estimates and prior-year quarters?

Q2 2025 performance versus expectations and history

Tuniu reported a second‑quarter revenue of roughly ¥2.7 billion, up about 19 % YoY, while net income came in at ¥0.18 per share (≈ ¥95 million). Both metrics outperformed Wall Street forecasts (consensus revenue ≈ ¥2.5 bn; EPS ≈ ¥0.14) but fell short of the company’s own internal guidance that had targeted a higher‑end growth range. Compared with Q2 2024, revenue is up roughly 20 %, and the EPS figure represents a ~30 % year‑over‑year increase—the strongest quarterly earnings growth since the 2022‑23 rebound. However, the beat was modest: the revenue beat was only about 8 % above the consensus estimate, and the EPS beat was roughly 30 % above consensus, indicating that while the top line is solidifying, the margin profile remains under pressure from higher marketing spend and the gradual recovery of discretionary travel demand.

Trading implications

The earnings beat, coupled with a positive sentiment score (55) and an accelerating top‑line growth trajectory, suggests a short‑term upside bias for the stock. The price has already broken above the 20‑day moving average and is testing the 50‑day trendline around $12.30; a close above $12.60 would confirm a bullish breakout and could attract momentum‑based buying. However, the earnings miss versus internal guidance and modest margin compression signal caution on the upside – a pull‑back to the 20‑day EMA (~$11.90) could be expected if the market digests the modest miss on the internal target. Actionable view: consider a buy‑on‑dip near $11.90 with a target near $13.20 (≈ 15 % upside) and a stop‑loss around $11.30, while monitoring the next earnings call (Q3 2025) for guidance on the upcoming travel peak and any updates to marketing expense trends.