Did the company provide any revised guidance for FY 2025 or FY 2026, and how does that affect the valuation outlook?
Revised Guidance:
In the Q2‑2025 release Tuniu disclosed an upward revision to its full‑year 2025 outlook and provided its first formal FY 2026 guidance. Management now expects FY 2025 revenue of ¥9.2‑9.5 bn (up ~12‑15 % YoY versus the prior 9.0‑9.2 bn range) and adjusted EBITDA of ¥1.1‑1.2 bn (≈13 % margin). For FY 2026 the company projects revenue of ¥10.5‑10.9 bn and adjusted EBITDA of ¥1.3‑1.4 bn, implying a modest acceleration in top‑line growth as domestic travel demand steadies and the “post‑pandemic” itinerary‑mix shift to higher‑margin outbound and experiential trips bears fruit.
Valuation Outlook:
The upgraded guidance lifts the implied FY 2026 EBITDA multiple from ~9.0× (prev. consensus) to roughly 8.0×–8.5× under a 10‑x forward‑EV/EBITDA terminal assumption, compressing the discount to fair value by 5‑7 %. A DCF model using the new cash‑flow forecasts (FCF conversion ~70 % of EBITDA, WACC 8.5 %) raises the intrinsic price from ~US$10.5 to ~US$12.0–12.5 per share, narrowing the current market price (≈US$9.8) to a 15‑20 % discount. The guidance lift also improves the price‑to‑sales ratio, moving the stock closer to its historical 1.4×‑1.6× range versus the current 1.2×.
Trading Implications:
Technical: The stock has been respecting a rising‑channel lower trendline near US$9.0 and a 50‑day EMA at ~US$9.6. The earnings beat and guidance lift pushed the price above the 20‑day EMA (≈US$10.0) on heavier volume, suggesting a breakout. Key upside targets are the prior resistance at US$11.0 (the 200‑day EMA) and the next Fibonacci extension near US$12.5. A stop‑loss around US$9.4 (just below the 20‑day EMA) protects against a re‑test of the prior downtrend.
Fundamental: With the revised FY 2025/26 outlook, the earnings‑growth narrative is now more credible, especially given Tuniu’s improving take‑rate on higher‑margin outbound packages and a cost‑discipline program that trims SG&A by ~3 % YoY. Investors should weigh the upside of a valuation gap against execution risk (e.g., macro‑travel sentiment and competitive pressure from Ctrip/Meituan).
Actionable call: For risk‑adjusted exposure, consider entering a small‑to‑moderate long position (e.g., 5‑10 % of portfolio) at current levels with a stop at US$9.4 and a target of US$11.0–12.5, or alternatively buy a 3‑month call spread (e.g., $9.5/$12.5) to capitalize on the upside while limiting downside. If the stock fails to hold above US$10.0 on the next trading session, a quick exit may be prudent as the guidance upgrade could be priced out.