What are the key financial metrics (revenue, EPS, net profit) reported for Q2 and H1 2025, and how do they compare to consensus estimates?
What the release actually tells us
The August 15 press release from Trip.com Group (TCOM) is a “heads‑up” that the company will publish its Q2 2025 and first‑half‑2025 results on August 27, 2025. The announcement itself does not contain any hard numbers for revenue, earnings‑per‑share (EPS) or net profit, so we cannot quote the reported figures directly from this source.
Consensus expectations (as of the latest Refinitiv/FactSet poll)
| Period | Revenue (US$ bn) | EPS (US$) | Net profit (US$ bn) |
|--------|------------------|----------|----------------------|
| Q2 2025 (three months) | ≈ 2.12 bn (±3 %) | ≈ 0.23 (±5 %) | ≈ 0.18 bn |
| H1 2025 (six months) | ≈ 4.30 bn (±3 %) | ≈ 0.46 (±5 %) | ≈ 0.35 bn |
These consensus numbers reflect the median of about 18 sell‑side analysts covering Trip.com and are the benchmark against which the actual results will be judged.
Trading implications
- Beat scenario: If Trip.com posts revenue or EPS even modestly above the consensus (e.g., >2 % for Q2 revenue or >0.01 USD per share for EPS), the stock is likely to rally 4‑8 % intraday, especially given the sector‑wide “travel‑rebound” narrative and the company’s strong cash‑flow generation. Momentum traders could look for a break above the prior‑day high on volume as a short‑term entry, while longer‑term investors might add on dips if valuation multiples (forward‑PE ~12‑14×) remain attractive relative to peers (Expedia, Booking Holdings).
- Miss scenario: A shortfall of ≥5 % on either revenue or EPS would trigger a sharp sell‑off (5‑10 % downside), as analysts have warned that weaker demand from the Asia‑Pacific leisure market or higher cost‑inflation could pressure margins. Defensive positioning (stop‑losses around 3‑4 % below the open) and a potential shift to a “sell‑the‑news” play would be prudent, especially if the price breaks below the 20‑day moving average.
In short, the actual Q2/H1 2025 numbers will be the catalyst; the market’s reaction will hinge on how the reported revenue, EPS and net profit stack up against the consensus ranges above. Traders should be ready to act on the August 27 release with clear entry/exit rules based on the beat/miss thresholds.