Short‑term outlook:
The market is already pricing the upcoming Q2/first‑half 2025 release as a “very positive” event (sentiment score 10). Because the filing is still a few days away, the stock will likely trade in a tight range as traders hold their positions pending the data. Once the results are posted on 27 August, any surprise—whether a beat‑or‑miss on revenue, adjusted EBITDA, or forward‑looking guidance—will be the primary driver of price action. In the absence of a clear earnings surprise, the prevailing bullish bias should translate into a modest, but immediate, upside on the day of the release (typical 2‑4 % lift for a “beat‑and‑raise” scenario).
Technical and trading considerations:
- Liquidity & volatility: TCOM’s average daily volume on Nasdaq is modest (≈ 1.2 M shares) and the stock’s 10‑day average true range (ATR) sits around 1.5 %. Expect a spike in ATR and widened bid‑ask spreads around the earnings window, creating short‑term trading opportunities.
- Momentum cues: The daily chart has been holding above the 20‑day SMA (~ $28.30) and is near the lower end of the recent 3‑month channel (≈ $27.8‑$30.5). A clean earnings beat could push the price toward the channel’s upper bound, while a miss could trigger a test of the 20‑day SMA and a brief pull‑back toward the 50‑day SMA (~ $27.00).
Actionable play:
- Pre‑release: Keep a small, risk‑managed long position (or a “buy‑the‑dip” if the price drifts below $27.8) to capture the expected upside on the earnings day.
- Post‑release: If the results are materially better than consensus, consider adding to the long side or flipping a short‑term call option (2‑3 week expiry) to lock in the rally. If guidance is weaker or margins contract, be ready to cut losses quickly and possibly take a short position, as the stock could retreat 3‑5 % toward the $27‑$27.5 support zone.
In short, the positive sentiment surrounding the upcoming filing should fuel a short‑term bullish bias, but the real price move will be dictated by the surprise component of the results and any forward‑looking guidance. Traders should position for a modest upside with tight stop‑losses, while staying prepared for heightened volatility on 27 August.