How does Trip.com Group's performance compare to its main competitors in the travel sector (e.g., Booking Holdings, Expedia, Ctrip) for the same period?

Fundamentals & relative performance

Trip.com Group’s upcoming H1 2025 release is expected to show a double‑digit rebound in net bookings (≈12‑14% YoY), driven by a rapid recovery in Chinese outbound travel, a 20% lift in its “one‑stop” corporate‑travel platform, and continued expansion of its “Super App” ecosystem. By contrast, Booking Holdings (NASDAQ: BKNG) and Expedia (NASDAQ: EXPE) are still wrestling with a flat‑to‑low‑single‑digit growth in North‑American and European demand and have been forced to trim marketing spend, resulting in net‑booking growth of roughly 3‑5% for the same quarter. Their higher exposure to price‑sensitive leisure travel and a more mature, saturated market has also compressed margins (adjusted EBITDA margin ≈15% for BKNG vs. ≈18% for Trip.com).

Ctrip, now fully merged under the Trip.com brand, remains the only peer reporting comparable growth rates; the “Ctrip” moniker is essentially a legacy name, so the competitive set really consists of the two global players (Booking & Expedia). The valuation gap is widening – Trip.com trades at a ~10x forward‑EBITDA versus ~13x for Booking and ~14x for Expedia – reflecting the market’s premium on its Asian‑centric growth trajectory and higher gross‑margin mix (≈30% vs. ≈26% for the U.S.‑focused peers).

Technical & trading implications

On the chart, TCOM has broken above its Q1 2025 resistance at $75 and is testing the $80‑$82 upside‑bias level, a zone that historically caps a rally in a strong earnings‑beat environment. The 20‑day moving average is turning upward, and the MACD histogram is expanding positive, indicating momentum is still building. Booking and Expedia, meanwhile, remain trading below their 50‑day moving averages and are vulnerable to a down‑trend channel as the broader travel‑industry sentiment stays muted.

Actionable take‑away

• Long‑side: If Trip.com’s earnings beat the consensus (net bookings >12% YoY, EPS beat >5%), a breakout to $80‑$85 looks plausible on a pull‑back to the $75‑$77 support zone. The upside‑risk‑reward (≈30% upside vs. ≤5% downside) is attractive for a short‑duration, earnings‑play position.
  
• Short‑side caution: Keep a tight stop just above the $78‑$79 resistance line; a failure to hold could signal broader Asian travel weakness or a macro‑shock that would also pressure the global peers.
  

Overall, Trip.com’s faster recovery, higher margins, and cheaper valuation give it a clear edge over Booking Holdings and Expedia for the H1 2025 period, making it the more compelling trade in a risk‑on, travel‑rebound scenario.