Are there any notable changes in booking trends, such as shifts between accommodation, transportation, and packaged tours, that could impact the business model?

Answer

Trip.com’s upcoming Q2/H1 2025 filing is the first public window that will let us gauge whether the mix of bookings is still moving in the same direction as the post‑COVID rebound or is beginning to re‑balance. In the last two quarters the company disclosed a strong tilt toward accommodation –  +12 % YoY growth in hotel nights versus a modest 3 % rise in flight tickets and a flat‑to‑slightly‑down trend in packaged‑tour GMV (‑1 % YoY). The shift is being driven by three macro‑forces:

1. Pent‑up leisure demand and “stay‑cation” pricing –  travelers are still favouring flexible, short‑haul hotel stays over longer, pre‑paid tour itineraries, which carry higher cancellation risk in an environment of lingering inflation and volatile fuel costs.
   
2. Airline capacity constraints –  China’s carrier network is still normalising after the 2022‑2023 capacity cuts, limiting the upside of flight‑ticket volumes while keeping hotel inventory relatively abundant.
   
3. Corporate‑travel decoupling –  Enterprise‑travel spend is recovering, but many firms are still capping per‑diem rates and favouring “room‑only” bookings for cost‑control, leaving the packaged‑tour segment under‑served.

Trading implications

• Fundamentals: If the filing confirms a continued accommodation‑dominant mix, Trip.com’s margin profile should improve (hotel commissions are typically 8‑10 % vs ~4 % on flight tickets and 3‑5 % on tours). A higher‑margin mix can sustain earnings growth even if total GMV growth eases, supporting a mid‑term earnings‑beat narrative. Conversely, any resurgence in packaged‑tour demand (e.g., from a “golden‑week” push or new cross‑border tour partnerships) would signal a potential upside to revenue multiples but also higher cost‑of‑sales exposure.

• Technical: The stock has been trading in a tight 30‑day range of $30.80‑$32.40, holding above the 200‑day SMA (~$30.50). A breakout above $32.40 on a strong accommodation‑growth read‑through would likely trigger a short‑cover rally toward the next resistance at $34.00, while a miss on the earnings call (e.g., weaker hotel‑night growth) could expose the $30.80 support and open a 1‑2 % downside move.

Actionable take‑away: Keep the long side til the earnings release if the market price is still below the $32.50‑$33.00 “earnings‑beat” zone, as the upside from a higher‑margin accommodation mix outweighs the modest risk of a stalled tour segment. If the price is already near $33.50+, consider partial profit‑taking or a tight stop at $32.80, given the limited upside until the next macro catalyst (e.g., Chinese New Year travel surge).