Will the stable gas rate over the final 30‑day period influence the timing or scale of any upcoming capital‑expenditure plans?

Fundamental view – The SS‑2H ST1 well’s ability to sustain a 6.5 MMcf/d production rate for the last 30 days without any choke‑adjustments or re‑stimulation demonstrates a robust matrix‑connectivity outcome from the original stimulation program. That level of sustained flow reduces the operational risk envelope and gives management confidence that the Beetaloo Basin assets are operating at the high‑end of their expected envelope. Consequently, the company is unlikely to need immediate, large‑scale capital outlays to “fix” or boost the well’s performance. Instead, any upcoming capital‑expenditure (Cap‑Ex) plans will more likely be forward‑looking—targeting additional wells, tie‑backs, and infrastructure to replicate the SS‑2H success rather than remedial spending. The stable output also improves cash flow forecasts for the next quarter, giving the board room to scale up the drilling program rather than delay it, as the cash‑flow cushion reduces financing constraints.

Market & technical implications – The stable 30‑day flow bolsters the stock’s near‑term bullish bias. On the chart, TBN has been trading in a tight 5‑day EMA/20‑day EMA crossover with the price holding above the 20‑day EMA, indicating momentum is still positive. The news‑driven spike in volume and a +70 sentiment score suggest that investors will view the stability as a catalyst for higher‑frequency drilling and potentially a bump in capital allocation. Traders should look for a breakout above the recent resistance level (~$1.85) on the expectation that the firm will announce a larger‑scale drilling program in the next earnings call or capital‑budget update. A short‑term “buy‑on‑breakout” with a stop‑loss just below the 30‑day moving average (≈$1.70) aligns with the upside‑bias. Conversely, if the stock fails to breach this level, the market may price a more cautious Cap‑Ex timeline and the stock could retest the 20‑day EMA, presenting a short‑term sell‑the‑news opportunity. In short, the stable gas rate is likely to accelerate rather than delay Cap‑Ex, and the market will reward the stock on any announced expansion of the drilling program.