How does the performance of SS‑2H ST1 compare to Tamboran’s other wells in the Beetaloo Basin and to peer operators in the region? | TBN (Aug 11, 2025) | Candlesense
TBN

How does the performance of SS‑2H ST1 compare to Tamboran’s other wells in the Beetaloo Basin and to peer operators in the region?

Performance Context:

The SS‑2H ST1 well has posted a record IP‑90 flow of 6.5 MMcf/d and, notably, has sustained that rate for the last 30 days without any down‑hole work‑overs. In the Beetaloo Basin, Tamboran’s recent wells have typically hovered in the 4–5 MMcf/d range and have required periodic choke adjustments to stabilize production. The “enhanced matrix connectivity” that Stoneburner cites suggests that the stimulation design for SS‑2H ST1 is delivering superior permeability and fracture efficiency—attributes that have not been observed across the company’s broader well portfolio. When stacked against regional peers (e.g., Origin Energy’s Beetaloo pilot wells and Santos’ adjacent acreage), the 6.5 MMcf/d figure sits at the top‑quartile of gas‑flow performance for new‑field wells, which generally average 3–4 MMcf/d in the same geological setting. The stable, non‑intervention‑required output further distinguishes Tamboran’s well from peers that have faced pressure drops or the need for remedial stimulations.

Trading Implications:

The record flow and the “no‑intervention” narrative signal a potentially higher net‑present‑value for the Beetaloo asset and a more favorable cost‑per‑barrel‑of‑oil‑equivalent metric. Investors typically reward such incremental reserve upgrades and lower operating risk with an upward price pressure—evidenced by a modest “70” sentiment rating. Given the magnitude of the flow uplift, we can anticipate a short‑term boost to Tamboran’s production guidance and potentially a re‑rating of its forward‑looking cash‑flow models, which could lift the stock 3‑5 % on a risk‑adjusted basis. Traders should watch for a near‑term rally, but keep a close eye on broader Australian gas sentiment and any regulatory or infrastructure bottlenecks that could temper the upside. A position in TBN (or its ADR) with a tight stop (≈5 % below current levels) could capture upside while limiting downside in the event of broader market volatility.

Other Questions About This News

How will the increased flow rate of 6.5 MMcf/d affect Tamboran’s short‑term production guidance and revenue forecasts? What is the expected contribution of the SS‑2H ST1 well to overall company cash flow and EBITDA in the next quarters? Does the record flow rate trigger any revision to the company’s 2025 reserve estimates or reserve life calculations? Will the stable gas rate over the final 30‑day period influence the timing or scale of any upcoming capital‑expenditure plans? Is there any indication that the enhanced matrix connectivity could be replicated at other wells, potentially leading to further production upside? What are the potential risks of a production decline after the 30‑day stable period, and how is the company mitigating them? Has the market already priced in the impact of this well’s performance, or is there still upside potential for the stock? Will the lack of downhole intervention or choke adjustments affect the well’s operating costs and overall margin profile? Are there any regulatory or infrastructure constraints that could limit the ability to sustain or increase the current flow rate?