Are there any regulatory or infrastructure constraints that could limit the ability to sustain or increase the current flow rate?

Regulatory & infrastructure outlook

The SS‑2H ST1 well is now delivering ~6.5 MMcf/d of gas without any choke‑adjustments or down‑hole work‑overs, which suggests the reservoir is operating at the limits of its current surface‑facility configuration. In Australia’s gas‑producing basins, the primary regulatory ceiling is the production‑authorisation limit set by the National Energy Resources (NER) licences and the state‑level environmental approvals. Tamboran’s current licence caps are already close to the well’s output, so any further uplift would require a formal amendment—an often‑lengthy process involving environmental impact assessments and community consultation. Until those approvals are secured, the company cannot legally increase the flow rate beyond the authorised level.

On the infrastructure side, the Beetaloo Basin is still expanding its mid‑stream network. Existing pipeline capacity, gas‑processing plant throughput, and compression assets are all operating near design thresholds for the current field output. If the SS‑2H ST1 flow continues to rise, the well could encounter bottlenecks: limited pipeline slots to transport gas to market, potential curtailment at the processing plant, or the need for additional compression power. Both the pipeline expansion schedule and the processing plant’s maintenance windows are publicly disclosed, and any delays (e.g., due to weather or supply‑chain constraints) would directly cap the well’s ability to sustain or increase its rate.

Trading implications

Given these constraints, the upside from a continued flow‑rate increase is conditional. While the well’s performance is impressive, the risk of regulatory caps or mid‑stream bottlenecks could lead to curtailments or forced production throttling, which would temper the bullish narrative on Tamboran’s gas output. Traders should therefore:

1. Monitor licence amendment filings and any statements from the Queensland regulator regarding production‑authorisation limits. A pending amendment could be a catalyst for upside; a denial or delay adds downside risk.
   
2. Track pipeline and processing capacity updates (e.g., announcements from the Australian Gas Infrastructure Group or the Beetaloo Basin’s mid‑stream operators). Any news of capacity constraints or scheduled maintenance could trigger a supply‑side squeeze, tightening gas pricing but also limiting Tamboran’s ability to deliver higher volumes.
   

In the short term, the stable 6.5 MMcf/d flow supports a neutral‑to‑bullish stance on Tamboran’s stock, but the price should be priced with a modest premium for the “regulatory‑/infrastructure‑headroom” risk. A position that remains long with a stop just below the current production‑authorisation ceiling, while keeping an eye on mid‑stream capacity news, would capture upside while protecting against a potential curtailment‑driven pull‑back.