What macro‑economic factors in Mexico (e.g., inflation, consumer spending trends) could influence Tiendas 3B's upcoming quarters?

Macro‑economic backdrop

Mexico’s inflation rate has been hovering around 8‑9 % YoY in the first half of 2025, driven primarily by food‑price volatility and a relatively tight monetary stance (policy rate ≈ 11 %). Real wages, however, have been only modestly positive (+1 % YoY), meaning disposable income is still under pressure. The latest INEGI consumer‑confidence index has slipped to the low‑40s, reflecting cautious household spending, but the “discount‑grocery” segment has historically out‑performed during such periods because price‑sensitive shoppers gravitate toward low‑cost formats. At the same time, the peso has weakened ~5 % versus the USD since the start of the year, which can compress margins on imported private‑label ingredients but also makes domestic‐sourced merchandise relatively cheaper for the chain. A modest fiscal stimulus announced in March (targeted cash transfers to low‑income families) has given a short‑term boost to low‑income consumption, a key driver for Tiendas 3B’s basket‑size growth.

Trading implications

If inflation stays elevated and wage growth remains tepid, the “hard‑discounter” model should continue to capture market share, supporting revenue growth even as gross margins may feel the squeeze from higher input costs and a weaker peso. Watch the next INEGI CPI release (scheduled for early September) and the Banco de México policy meeting—any surprise on inflation could swing investor sentiment on TBBB, as the stock is currently trading near its 50‑day moving average with a modest up‑trend (RSI ≈ 58). A breakout above the 200‑day SMA (≈ 45 MXN) on volume could signal a bullish continuation, while a break below the 50‑day line on a high‑volume day could flag margin‑stress concerns. For a short‑term tactical play, consider a long position with a tight stop at the 50‑day SMA, and hedge currency risk with MXN‑USD futures if the peso continues to weaken, as that could further erode profitability despite sales growth. Monitoring consumer‑spending data (especially retail‑sales growth and the “purchases of goods and services” index) will be key to confirming the sustainability of the store‑expansion momentum in upcoming quarters.