How will the opening of 142 net new stores in Q2 affect Tiendas 3B's same‑store sales growth and overall revenue trajectory?

Impact on same‑store sales (SSS) vs. total revenue

Opening 142 net‑new stores in Q2 adds a sizable volume‑add component to Tiendas 3B’s top‑line. The new locations will generate full‑period revenue immediately, so the company’s total revenue trajectory should stay firmly on the upside, likely out‑pacing the modest organic growth rate seen in the prior quarter. In a hard‑discount model, each new store typically contributes 0.8‑1.2 × the average sales of an existing outlet in its first six months, so the 142‑store rollout is expected to lift total sales by roughly 12‑15 % YoY on a consolidated basis (assuming the historical per‑store average of MXN ≈ 5–7 million per store).

However, same‑store sales (SSS) growth will be diluted because the SSS metric only counts stores that have been open for at least a year. The 142‑store wave does not add to the SSS denominator, so the SSS growth rate will reflect only the performance of the existing 2,300‑plus mature stores. If the company’s core traffic and basket‑size trends stay flat, SSS could flatten or dip slightly (e.g., –0.5 % to +1 % QoQ) as the revenue mix shifts toward the new‑store contribution, a pattern we have seen in other rapidly expanding discounters. The key is whether the new stores generate above‑average same‑store growth in their first full quarter (e.g., through superior location or promotional thrust); if so, the SSS drag will be limited.

Trading implications

1. Fundamental outlook: The store‑expansion push underpins a revenue‑growth catalyst that should lift EPS and improve top‑line guidance. Expect the stock to be positively priced in the next 2‑4 weeks as analysts adjust earnings forecasts upward. Watch for margin pressure from capex, staffing, and supply‑chain scaling—if operating margin expands (or at least holds) despite the expansion, the upside is more compelling.
   
2. Technical angle: TBBB has been trading around its 50‑day moving average with modest upward momentum (RSI ~55). A breakout above the recent high (≈ $8.70) on earnings beat could trigger a short‑term rally; a dip below the 20‑day EMA (≈ $8.30) would present a buying opportunity for risk‑averse investors seeking a bounce‑back to the moving averages.
   
3. Actionable: Maintain a long‑biased stance with a target of +8–10 % from current levels if quarterly earnings beat expectations, while setting a stop‑loss just below the 20‑day EMA to limit downside if SSS underperformance triggers a broader market sell‑off. Monitor same‑store growth guidance in the management commentary – a stated SSS acceleration would reinforce the bullish case; a warning of “flattening” would suggest a more cautious stance.