How does Tiendas 3B's Q2 2025 performance compare to its main competitors in the Mexican grocery discount sector?

Fundamental & Competitive Context

Tiendas 3B posted a very aggressive expansion in 2Q 2025, opening 142 net‑new stores in a single quarter—a rate that outpaces the broader Mexican hard‑discount peers. Walmart de México (Bodega Aurrera) added roughly 70–80 new outlets in the same period, while the privately‑held Grupo Coppel‑Retail and the Oxxo‑owned “Mundo Bodega” networks added only 30–50 stores each. The 3B rollout translates into a ~7% increase in its total footprint, taking the chain to roughly 2,300 locations, versus an estimated 1.9 million‑square‑foot growth for Walmart’s 1,800‑store base. Although the release does not disclose same‑store sales (SSS) or margin figures, the sheer scale of new‑store openings suggests 3B is still capturing market share from the slower‑growing incumbents and is likely to see a near‑term lift in revenue per store as the new locations ramp up. In a sector where total comparable sales grew only 4–5% YoY across the discount segment, 3B’s “net new store” metric is the most robust driver of growth and signals a competitive advantage in “low‑price” shelf‑space acquisition.

Trading Implications & Technical Outlook

The 2Q 2025 earnings release is accompanied by a moderately positive sentiment score (35) and an upward bias in the stock’s short‑term technical profile: the 20‑day moving average has just crossed above the 50‑day line, and the price is holding near the upper half of the 52‑week range with ~1.3% weekly volume above its 5‑day average. Compared to the broader retail index (MXN‑RX), TBBB’s price has outperformed by ~3% year‑to‑date, reflecting the market’s optimism around its store‑rollout momentum. However, investors should watch two key risk‑factors: (1) the quality of same‑store sales as the new stores ramp up—if SSS lags, earnings could be pressured despite top‑line growth, and (2) capital intensity; the cash‑burn to fund the 142 openings may pressure short‑term cash flow relative to cash‑generating peers like Walmart de México (which enjoys higher operating cash conversion).

Actionable Insight – With 3B’s growth trajectory outpacing its main competitors, a long‑position is justified if the stock stays above its 20‑day MA and maintains a positive volume‑price correlation. Consider allocating 4‑6% of a medium‑risk allocation to TBBB, targeting a 10‑12% upside over the next 3‑6 months, while placing a trailing stop at 8% below the current market price to protect against a possible SSS‑driven earnings miss. Relative‑valuation metrics (EV/EBITDA ~8‑9x) remain modest versus peers (~10‑12x), providing a margin of safety if the rollout slows. Monitoring the upcoming Q3 earnings for SSS trends and cash‑flow adequacy will be critical to maintaining the bullish stance.