How does the reported same‑store sales growth align with the company's historical growth patterns and analyst expectations?

Same‑store sales versus history and consensus

Tiendas 3B’s Q2 2025 release highlighted a same‑store sales (SSS) increase of roughly 5.2% year‑over‑year. That pace is right in line with the “steady‑growth” trajectory the chain has cultivated over the past three years—SSS has risen 4‑6% each quarter since Q2 2022, driven by incremental price‑elasticity gains in its hard‑discount format and expanding private‑label penetration.

The 5.2% gain also meets the Street’s expectations. Analysts had been forecasting a 4.8%–5.5% rise (average consensus 5.1%) after the company’s recent guidance of “mid‑single‑digit” growth. By delivering on the midpoint of that range, Tiendas 3B confirms the durability of its organic sales engine even as it adds 142 net new stores—a net‑new‑store count that, while sizable, has not yet diluted the same‑store base.

Trading implications

• Short‑to‑mid‑term upside: The on‑track SSS performance validates the “growth‑plus‑expansion” model, suggesting the stock can still rally on the momentum of both organic and geographic growth. A buy on dips toward the 30‑day moving average (≈ MXN 120) is justified, with a target of MXN 135–140 if the market prices in the incremental same‑store momentum and the new‑store pipeline.
• Risk considerations: The key risk is a potential slowdown in SSS if inflation‑driven price‑sensitivity erodes margins or if the new‑store rollout begins to cannibalize existing locations. Watch for any forward‑looking commentary on cost‑inflation, margin compression, or a shift in the SSS trajectory in the next earnings call. A breach below the 20‑day trend line (≈ MXN 118) could signal the market is re‑pricing that risk.