Guidance reaffirmed
In the Q2 2025 release Sonendo, Inc. (NASDAQ: SNO) confirmed the FY 2025 outlook it previously issued: ‑ Revenue of $115 million (±5 %); ‑ Adjusted EBITDA of $12 million; and ‑ Net loss of $5 million. The company also kept its cash‑conversion‑cycle targets and its 2025 R&D spend ceiling of $22 million unchanged.
Consistency with analyst consensus
The reaffirmed numbers sit squarely inside the current Street view. The consensus revenue estimate for FY 2025 is $112 million (±3 %), while analysts peg adjusted EBITDA at $11–13 million and a net loss of $4–6 million. By restating the same figures, Sonendo signals that management believes the operating environment will not materially deviate from expectations—a cue that the “sell‑the‑rumor, buy‑the‑news” play is largely exhausted.
Trading implications
* Technical backdrop: SNO has been trading in a tight 20‑day range around $4.20–$4.55, with the 50‑day SMA (≈$4.38) acting as a pivot. The price is still below the FY 2025 guidance‑linked upside target of roughly $4.80 (≈10 % over current levels).
* Actionable stance: With guidance already baked into consensus, the catalyst for a price move is limited. If the stock slips below the 20‑day low (~$4.15) on any surprise on the cash‑burn side, a short‑term bounce to the 50‑day SMA could be a quick scalp. Conversely, a breakout above $4.55 with volume confirming would suggest the market is rewarding the reaffirmed outlook and could push the next leg toward $4.80–$5.00. A neutral‑to‑light‑long position is appropriate unless a material deviation from the guidance appears in future releases.