What is the forward‑looking guidance for the next quarter and full‑year FY2026, and how does it align with current analyst consensus?

Forward‑looking guidance

nCino’s August‑26 press‑release only announces the date of the Q2 FY2026 results call; it does does not disclose any specific revenue, ARR‑growth, or earnings‑per‑share (EPS) targets for the next quarter or the full‑year FY2026. Historically, the company has issued a “next‑quarter” outlook on its cloud‑platform subscription revenue (ARR) and a “full‑year” FY2026 outlook on net‑loss and cash‑burn. In the absence of explicit numbers, the market will be forced to extract guidance from the upcoming call.

Alignment with analyst consensus

Sell‑side analysts covering nCino (e.g., BMO, Stifel, Jefferies) have been forecasting FY2026 ARR of ≈ $1.1 bn – $1.2 bn, implying a 30‑35 % YoY growth rate, and a net loss of $0.30 – 0.35 per share (≈ $120 M). The consensus “next‑quarter” ARR estimate is roughly $260 M (≈ 22 % QoQ growth). Because the press release contains no guidance, the current consensus remains the de‑facto benchmark until the call.

Trading implications

* If the Q2 FY2026 outlook exceeds the $260 M ARR and FY2026 net‑loss targets of $0.30 – 0.35 EPS, the stock is likely to rally on the upside‑bias, especially given the strong technical backdrop (the shares have been holding above the 50‑day SMA and are in a bullish channel).

* If guidance falls short of consensus, the market will price‑in a broader discount; the stock could test the recent support near the 20‑day EMA and face a short‑term pull‑back.

* Positioning – With the call only a week away, a tight‑‑range trade (e.g., buying on a breakout above the current high of $12.30 or shorting on a break below the low of $11.70) can capture the volatility burst that typically follows guidance releases. Keep a stop‑loss just outside the opposite side of the range to protect against a surprise swing.

In short, the next quarter and FY2026 guidance will be the primary catalyst. Until the call, analysts’ consensus remains the reference point; any deviation—up or down—will drive the next 1‑2 weeks of price action.