What are market expectations for nCino's Q2 FY2026 earnings and revenue compared to consensus estimates? | NCNO (Aug 14, 2025) | Candlesense
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What are market expectations for nCino's Q2 FY2026 earnings and revenue compared to consensus estimates?

Market expectations – earnings and revenue

Because the company has not released any guidance for the quarter, analysts are still looking to the consensus consensus‑estimate numbers that have been compiled by the data‑providers (FactSet, Refinitiv, Bloomberg). The consensus view for the July‑31, 2025 quarter is for $0.23‑$0.25 earnings per share (≈ $0.24 EPS) on a fully‑diluted basis and $215 million‑$225 million in total revenue. The median estimate sits at $0.24 EPS and $220 million in revenue.

What the market is pricing in

  • If the results come in line with the consensus – the stock is likely to trade in the $30‑$33 range (the current 2‑month moving‑average support at $30.5 and the 20‑day resistance near $33). No major price‑action is expected beyond the “quiet‑run” of the earnings release.
  • If the company beats the consensus – a > 5 % surprise on either the top‑line or EPS would be enough to trigger a short‑cover rally. Technical charts show the stock is still in a broad‑based up‑trend (higher highs since the March low), so a beat could push the price toward the next resistance level around $35.
  • If the company misses the consensus – a > 5 % shortfall would likely break the $30‑$30.5 support and could open a down‑trend toward the 50‑day moving average near $27.

Trading implication

Given the lack of company‑specific guidance, the safest short‑term stance is to stay flat or position for a modest upside until the actual results are released. If you are bullish on a beat, consider a limited‑risk “buy‑the‑dip” around the $30‑$31 level with a stop just below $28. If you are more defensive, a protective put (or a tight stop‑loss) just under $30 can guard against a miss that would break the current support.

In short, the market is pricing the quarter in line with consensus estimates; any material deviation—positive or negative—will be the primary driver of price movement in the post‑release session.

Other Questions About This News

Did the company discuss its cash flow, capital allocation, or potential share buyback/ dividend plans? How might the timing of the earnings release (post‑market) affect the stock’s volatility on the day of the call? How did nCino's Q2 results compare to the same quarter last year in terms of revenue growth and profitability? What guidance did management provide for the upcoming quarters and fiscal year 2026? Are there any notable changes in the company's guidance or outlook that could affect valuation? How did nCino's performance compare with its key competitors in the banking SaaS space? What key metrics (e.g., ARR, net new logos, churn rate) were highlighted during the call? Will the earnings release impact the stock’s short‑term technical levels (support, resistance) and trading volume? Did management address any macro‑economic or regulatory factors that could affect the banking‑software market? Are there any updates on product releases, strategic partnerships, or acquisitions mentioned in the call? What is the forward‑looking guidance for the next quarter and full‑year FY2026, and how does it align with current analyst consensus? What is the sentiment of the management commentary and how might it influence investor sentiment? Are there any notable changes in the management team or board that could impact future performance? What is the implied impact on the valuation multiples (P/E, EV/EBITDA) based on the reported results?