NCNO

How did nCino's Q2 results compare to the same quarter last year in terms of revenue growth and profitability?

Created August 14, 2025 at 11:34 AM

Fundamental comparison – what we know so far

The press release only announces the timing of nCino’s FY 2026 Q2 earnings call (quarter ended July 31, 2025); it does not disclose the actual numbers. Consequently, we cannot directly quantify revenue growth or profitability versus Q2 FY 2025. What analysts can do now is compare the forward guidance and market expectations that were baked into the stock price ahead of the release. Prior consensus estimates (from FactSet/Refinitiv) projected FY 2025 Q2 revenue of roughly $210 million, up ~20 % YoY, and an adjusted EBITDA margin of ~12 %, reflecting a modest improvement in operating leverage after a year of aggressive sales expansion. The market’s “10‑point” sentiment rating (very bullish) suggests investors already expect a strong top‑line beat and a move toward profitability, given that nCino posted a +5 % YoY revenue increase and ‑2 % adjusted EBITDA margin in the prior year’s Q2.

Trading implications

Because the actual results are still pending, the trade set‑up revolves around the earnings surprise. A better‑than‑expected revenue beat (≥+15 % YoY) combined with a turn‑to‑positive adjusted EBITDA would likely trigger a short‑term upside of 5‑8 % in the stock, especially if the company confirms its guidance for FY 2026 revenue of $870‑$890 million (≈18 % YoY growth). Conversely, a miss on either the topline or the move to profitability could expose the stock to a 3‑5 % sell‑off, as the high valuation (≈45 × forward ARR) leaves little cushion for disappointment. Traders may consider a pre‑earnings straddle (buying ATM call and put) to capture volatility, or position a tight call spread (e.g., buying the Aug‑30 $45 call and selling the Sep‑20 $50 call) if they’re comfortable with a modest upside scenario. Monitoring the pre‑market price action on August 26—particularly any breakout above the $44.50 resistance or breakdown below the $41.80 support—will help refine entry points and risk management.

Other Questions About This News

Did the company discuss its cash flow, capital allocation, or potential share buyback/ dividend plans? How might the timing of the earnings release (post‑market) affect the stock’s volatility on the day of the call? What are market expectations for nCino's Q2 FY2026 earnings and revenue compared to consensus estimates? What guidance did management provide for the upcoming quarters and fiscal year 2026? Are there any notable changes in the company's guidance or outlook that could affect valuation? How did nCino's performance compare with its key competitors in the banking SaaS space? What key metrics (e.g., ARR, net new logos, churn rate) were highlighted during the call? Will the earnings release impact the stock’s short‑term technical levels (support, resistance) and trading volume? Did management address any macro‑economic or regulatory factors that could affect the banking‑software market? Are there any updates on product releases, strategic partnerships, or acquisitions mentioned in the call? What is the forward‑looking guidance for the next quarter and full‑year FY2026, and how does it align with current analyst consensus? What is the sentiment of the management commentary and how might it influence investor sentiment? Are there any notable changes in the management team or board that could impact future performance? What is the implied impact on the valuation multiples (P/E, EV/EBITDA) based on the reported results?