Guidance Outlook
In the brief release, nCino did not disclose numerical guidance for the upcoming third‑quarter or the full FY 2026. The company simply announced that it will discuss its Q2 FY 2026 results and provide forward‑looking expectations during the earnings call scheduled for August 26 at 4:30 p.m. ET. Historically, nCino uses that forum to reveal both quarter‑over‑quarter revenue/ARR growth targets and its FY 2026 outlook (often framing guidance in terms of “double‑digit” revenue growth, expanding net dollar retention and improving adjusted EBITDA margins).
Trading Implications
Because the precise numbers are still pending, the market will price‑in expectations based on consensus estimates (≈ 15‑18 % YoY revenue growth for FY 2026 and a 5‑7 % increase in adjusted EBITDA margin). Any deviation—especially a higher‑than‑expected ARR expansion or a sharper margin lift—could trigger a short‑term rally, while a muted outlook may provoke a pull‑back. Traders should:
- Watch the call: Set alerts for the start of the webcast and be ready to act on the first 10‑15 minutes when management typically states the guidance.
- Technical cues: nCino has been trading in a tight 5‑day range around $28‑$31 ahead of the release. A breakout above $31 on positive guidance would likely test the next resistance near $34; a break below $28 could open the $24‑$26 support zone.
- Position sizing: Consider a small‑to‑moderate directional play (e.g., 0.5‑1 % of portfolio) via a market‑order or limit order positioned just above the current resistance for a “buy‑the‑rumor” if you anticipate upbeat guidance, or a protective put spread if you expect a downside surprise.
In short, the actionable insight is to stay on the sidelines until the August 26 call, then let the actual FY 2026 guidance—whether it confirms a strong double‑digit growth narrative or signals a slowdown—drive the next trade.