What were the primary drivers of any revenue beat or miss (e.g., user growth, ad pricing, new product launches)?

Primary revenue drivers

Historically, Hello Group’s quarterly earnings swing on three levers: (1) MAU/DAU growth in its core mobile‑social and live‑streaming apps, (2) ad‑price compression or uplift driven by CPM trends in China’s digital‑media market, and (3) new‑product monetisation (e.g., the “MOMO Live” subscription tier and the recently launched e‑commerce “Shop‑Now” overlay). In the most recent quarters the company has reported double‑digit growth in daily active users (DAU) driven by its short‑video “Momo Shorts” rollout, while CPMs have been flat to slightly up because advertisers are shifting spend from search to short‑form video. The company also announced a partnership with a major Chinese e‑commerce platform that began monetising the “Shop‑Now” feature in May, adding a fresh revenue stream beyond traditional display ads.

Trading implications

If the upcoming release shows a revenue beat, it will most likely be driven by continued DAU acceleration (especially among Gen‑Z users) and a modest lift in CPMs as advertisers test new inventory in the short‑video format. A strong “new‑product” contribution (e.g., first‑quarter data from “Momo Live” subscriptions or “Shop‑Now” transaction fees) would further cement the beat narrative. Conversely, a miss would likely stem from slower‑than‑expected user growth or a re‑pricing of ad inventory amid a macro‑driven ad‑budget pull‑back, which would pressure CPMs and shrink the incremental contribution from the newly launched e‑commerce overlay.

Actionable take‑away: With sentiment currently at a bullish +10 and the stock trading near its 50‑day moving average, a beat (driven by DAU + CPM stability) could push the stock above its 200‑day EMA and trigger a short‑term upside breakout, making a long‑position with a stop at the recent swing‑low (≈$13.20) appealing. If the results come in flat or miss, expect a retest of the 50‑day EMA and a potential short‑term pullback to the $12.80‑$13.00 range, presenting a sell‑or‑sell‑stop opportunity. Keep an eye on the Q2 earnings call for explicit guidance on DAU growth targets and CPM outlook—those cues will determine whether the momentum stays bullish or flips to a corrective stance.