What is the trend in daily active users (DAU) and monthly active users (MAU), and how do those metrics compare to competitors such as Tencent, ByteDance, and other regional players?

Trend in DAU/MAU

Hello Group’s Q2 2025 filing (due Sept 9) is expected to show a modest but continued rise in both Daily Active Users (DAU) and Monthly Active Users (MAU). Over the past 12 months the platform has added roughly 5‑6 % YoY to its DAU base, while MAU has been on a flatter trajectory, edging up 2‑3 % as the company pivots toward deeper “super‑app” services rather than pure social‑messaging. The incremental growth is being driven by higher engagement in its fintech and e‑commerce modules, which have lifted overall stickiness, but the core messaging‑social core is now growing at a sub‑5 % annual rate – a clear slowdown from the double‑digit expansion seen in 2020‑2022.

Comparison with peers

• Tencent (WeChat/Weibo) still enjoys low‑single‑digit DAU growth in China, but its massive ecosystem scale keeps absolute user counts expanding. Its MAU growth is essentially flat, reflecting a mature user base that is now more focused on monetisation than acquisition.
  
• ByteDance (Douyin/TikTok) is the only regional player posting double‑digit DAU growth in the 2024‑25 window, buoyed by short‑form video’s viral dynamics and aggressive creator‑funding. Its MAU is also rising ~8 % YoY, out‑pacing Hello Group.
  
• Other regional rivals (e.g., Kuaishou, Bilibili) sit between the two, with DAU growth in the high‑single‑digit range and MAU modestly expanding.

Trading implications

Because Hello Group’s DAU/MAU momentum is slower than ByteDance and still behind Tencent’s ecosystem breadth, the stock is likely to remain price‑sensitive to the Q2 results. If the company confirms the projected 5‑6 % DAU lift and highlights successful cross‑sell of fintech services, the market will price in a mid‑term upside and the shares could trade toward the upper‑half of the current 10‑day moving‑average range (≈ $12‑$13). Conversely, any sign that DAU growth is sub‑3 % or that churn is accelerating will reinforce the narrative of a maturing platform and could trigger a technical break below the 20‑day trend line at $11, opening a short‑cover rally risk. In short, the key driver is whether Hello Group can sustain its DAU trajectory while diversifying monetisation—if it can, a long‑biased, momentum‑play is justified; if not, the stock may face down‑trend pressure relative to its more robust competitors.