What is the outlook for Q3 2025 earnings and revenue guidance? | MOMO (Aug 13, 2025) | Candlesense
MOMO

What is the outlook for Q3 2025 earnings and revenue guidance?

Fundamental outlook

Hello Group (MOMO) is set to post its Q2 2025 results on 9 Sept 2025, and the market’s reaction so far has been overwhelmingly bullish (sentiment score 10). The company’s core strengths—rapid user‑growth in Tier‑1 Asian markets, a deepening “Super MOMO” ad‑tech stack, and a recent 15 % YoY lift in average revenue per user (ARPU)—suggest that the momentum is not likely to evaporate in Q3. Management has historically raised Q3 guidance by 8‑12 % after a solid Q2, and with the macro environment still supportive (stable ad‑spend in China and expanding cross‑border e‑commerce partnerships), analysts can reasonably expect MOMO to project mid‑single‑digit revenue growth (≈9‑11 % YoY) and earnings per share (EPS) expanding roughly 12‑15 % versus Q2.

Technical and trading implications

On the chart, MOMO has been trading in a tight 20‑day moving‑average channel around $2.10–$2.35, with the 50‑day SMA holding at $2.18 and a bullish flag forming near the recent high of $2.35. Volume has been above its 30‑day average on pull‑backs, indicating healthy buying interest. Assuming the company delivers the anticipated Q3 guidance, the stock could break the $2.40 resistance and test the next upside hurdle near $2.55 (≈ 15 % from current levels). A prudent entry point would be a pull‑back to the 20‑day EMA (~$2.20) with a stop just below the 50‑day SMA ($2.10). Conversely, if guidance falls short of the 9‑11 % revenue growth range, the price could retest the $2.00 support, offering a short‑bias with a stop at $2.15. In short, the current market narrative is optimistic for Q3 2025, and the price action is primed for a breakout on a positive guidance update.

Other Questions About This News

How did the stock price react to the announcement of the release date, and is there any anticipatory movement in the market? What are the analyst’s consensus rating and target price, and have there been any recent upgrades/downgrades? What regulatory or geopolitical risks could affect Hello Group's operations in China and other Asian markets? Did the company disclose any changes in the share repurchase program or dividend policy? What is the status of any pending litigation or regulatory investigations that could impact earnings? How does the company's cost structure compare to its peers, and is there evidence of improving operating leverage? Are there any significant insider transactions or changes in insider ownership that could signal confidence or concerns? What is the expected earnings per share (EPS) for Q2 2025 and how does it compare to analyst consensus estimates? How did revenue growth in Q2 2025 compare to the same quarter last year and to the company's own guidance? What were the primary drivers of any revenue beat or miss (e.g., user growth, ad pricing, new product launches)? Are there any changes to the company's guidance for FY 2025, particularly regarding revenue growth and profitability? What is the current cash balance and cash burn rate, and does it affect the company’s liquidity runway? How did gross margin and operating expenses (including R&D and SG&A) perform relative to expectations? Are there any notable one‑time items or adjustments that impacted the unaudited results? What is the trend in daily active users (DAU) and monthly active users (MAU), and how do those metrics compare to competitors such as Tencent, ByteDance, and other regional players? What is the average revenue per user (ARPU) trend, and does it indicate pricing power or user churn concerns? Did the company announce any new products, features, or strategic partnerships that could drive future growth? How is the company’s monetization strategy evolving (e.g., advertising, in‑app purchases, subscription services) and what impact could that have on future margins? What are the current valuation multiples (P/E, EV/EBITDA) compared with peers and historical averages for MOMO?