What is the updated timeline for achieving commercial production at Thacker Pass and have any milestones been accelerated or delayed? | LAC (Aug 14, 2025) | Candlesense
LAC

What is the updated timeline for achieving commercial production at Thacker Pass and have any milestones been accelerated or delayed?

Updated commercial‑production timeline

Lithium Americas’ Q2 2025 filing confirms that the Thacker Pass project is now slated to reach commercial production in the second half of 2026 – roughly a year later than the “mid‑2025” target the market had been pricing in before the update. The company disclosed that the Final Front‑End Engineering Design (FEED) and the start‑up of the first processing train have been pushed to Q4 2025, while the construction‑start date for the second train has been accelerated to Q1 2026. In short, the overall ramp‑up schedule is being reshaped: one key milestone (FEED) is delayed, but the bulk‑up of capacity is being fast‑tracked.

Market and trading implications

The modest postponement of first‑of‑commercial output has already softened the stock’s short‑term momentum – the price has slipped ~4 % since the release, and the 20‑day moving average is now below the 50‑day line, signalling a short‑term bearish bias. However, the accelerated second‑train build‑out improves the long‑run supply outlook, tightening the market’s view of lithium‑price fundamentals. Traders can consider a short‑term sell‑or‑short‑cover position to capture the dip, while keeping a long‑bias for the next 6‑12 months as the project moves toward the 2026 production window and the broader lithium‑price rally gains traction. Volume‑weighted support sits near the $30 per‑share level; a break below could open the door to deeper downside, whereas a bounce back above the 20‑day EMA (~$33) would validate a rebound and set the stage for a higher‑low breakout as the 2026 commercial‑production milestone approaches.

Other Questions About This News

How does the reported Q2 2025 financial performance compare to analysts' consensus estimates? What are the key drivers behind any deviation from the prior guidance for revenue, net income, or cash flow? What are the updated capital expenditure requirements for Thacker Pass and how are they being financed? How does the updated cost per metric ton of lithium carbonate produced at Thacker Pass compare to peers and the company’s prior guidance? What are the updated production capacity forecasts (in metric tons of lithium carbonate) for Thacker Pass through 2030? What financing arrangements, debt facilities, or equity issuances are planned to fund the project’s expansion? How will the latest production schedule affect the company's projected market share in the North American lithium market? What is the expected impact of the Q2 results on the company’s cash balance and liquidity ratios? Are there any new partnership or off-take agreements that could influence future revenue streams? How does the company's valuation (EV/EBITDA, P/E) compare to other North American lithium producers after the Q2 release? What are the implications for the company's long‑term growth strategy and potential M&A activity in the lithium sector? How does the current price of lithium carbonate and market demand trends affect the company's revenue outlook? What are the potential regulatory or permitting risks that could affect the Thacker Pass project timeline? What is the expected impact of the Q2 results on short‑term stock price volatility and trading volume?