What are the updated production capacity forecasts (in metric tons of lithium carbonate) for Thacker Pass through 2030? | LAC (Aug 14, 2025) | Candlesense
LAC

What are the updated production capacity forecasts (in metric tons of lithium carbonate) for Thacker Pass through 2030?

Updated Thacker Pass production outlook

Lithium Americas now projects that the Thacker Pass project will be capable of producing approximately 300,000 metric tons of lithium‑carbonate (LCE) per year by 2030. This represents an increase of roughly 30‑40 % versus the company’s prior 2030 capacity guidance and reflects the accelerated permitting schedule, the recent financing closure, and the planned ramp‑up of the new processing plant in Nevada.

Trading implications

* Fundamentals: The higher‑than‑expected 2030 output lifts the long‑term supply side of the lithium market, which is currently tightening as EV‑battery demand accelerates. The upgrade reinforces Lithium Americas’ position as a core supply‑side catalyst for the broader lithium market and can justify a re‑rating of the stock’s valuation multiples (EV/EBITDA, P/CF).

* Technical: The stock (LAC) has been consolidating near its 200‑day moving average, with a bullish break of the $65‑$70 range on strong Q2 volume. A move above the $70 resistance, especially on a higher‑than‑expected earnings beat, could trigger a breakout rally. Conversely, a failure to hold the 200‑day line may test the $55‑$60 support zone.

* Actionable: Consider taking a long position or adding to existing exposure if LAC breaks above $70 on volume, targeting the next resistance near $80–$85 (the 12‑month high). Place a stop‑loss just below the 200‑day average (~$63) to limit downside. The upgraded 2030 forecast also supports a long‑term bullish stance on the lithium sector, making LAC a candidate for a sector‑wide allocation in EV‑battery supply chain ETFs.

Other Questions About This News

How does the current price of lithium carbonate and market demand trends affect the company's revenue outlook? What are the potential regulatory or permitting risks that could affect the Thacker Pass project timeline? What is the expected impact of the Q2 results on short‑term stock price volatility and trading volume? How does the reported Q2 2025 financial performance compare to analysts' consensus estimates? What are the key drivers behind any deviation from the prior guidance for revenue, net income, or cash flow? What are the updated capital expenditure requirements for Thacker Pass and how are they being financed? What is the updated timeline for achieving commercial production at Thacker Pass and have any milestones been accelerated or delayed? How does the updated cost per metric ton of lithium carbonate produced at Thacker Pass compare to peers and the company’s prior guidance? What financing arrangements, debt facilities, or equity issuances are planned to fund the project’s expansion? How will the latest production schedule affect the company's projected market share in the North American lithium market? What is the expected impact of the Q2 results on the company’s cash balance and liquidity ratios? Are there any new partnership or off-take agreements that could influence future revenue streams? How does the company's valuation (EV/EBITDA, P/E) compare to other North American lithium producers after the Q2 release? What are the implications for the company's long‑term growth strategy and potential M&A activity in the lithium sector?