How does the updated cost per metric ton of lithium carbonate produced at Thacker Pass compare to peers and the company’s prior guidance? | LAC (Aug 14, 2025) | Candlesense
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How does the updated cost per metric ton of lithium carbonate produced at Thacker Pass compare to peers and the company’s prior guidance?

Updated cost versus guidance and peers

Lithium Americas now projects a cash‑cost of ≈ $4,200 / metric tonne of lithium carbonate (LCE) at Thacker Pass once full‑scale production is reached. That is about $600‑$800 lower than the company’s own Q2‑2025 guidance of $4,900‑$5,100 / t, and it brings Thacker Pass into the mid‑range of the peer set. Albemarle’s U.S. “Brawley” operation and SQM’s “Salar de Atacama” expansion are reporting cash‑costs in the $4,500‑$5,200 / t band, while newer “green‑energy” projects (e.g., Piedmont, Australia) still sit above $5,000 / t. In other words, Thacker Pass is now ~5‑10 % cheaper than the nearest peer and ~15 % cheaper than the company’s prior internal target.

Trading implications

The cost compression tightens the margin outlook for Lithium Americas, especially given the current spot price of lithium carbonate hovering around $12,000‑$13,000 / t. Even at the lower end of the price range, the project now delivers a gross spread of $7,800‑$8,800 / t, comfortably above its own cost base and competitive with the broader market. This improvement strengthens the company’s narrative of being a low‑cost, next‑generation North‑American supplier and should support the stock on both fundamentals and relative valuation. Traders could look for a short‑term upside bias on any pull‑back, targeting a bounce toward the $45‑$50 range (current levels ~ $42). Conversely, watch for volume spikes or adverse regulatory news that could temper enthusiasm; a break below the 50‑day moving average (~$38) would merit defensive positioning.

Other Questions About This News

How does the reported Q2 2025 financial performance compare to analysts' consensus estimates? What are the key drivers behind any deviation from the prior guidance for revenue, net income, or cash flow? What are the updated capital expenditure requirements for Thacker Pass and how are they being financed? What is the updated timeline for achieving commercial production at Thacker Pass and have any milestones been accelerated or delayed? What are the updated production capacity forecasts (in metric tons of lithium carbonate) for Thacker Pass through 2030? What financing arrangements, debt facilities, or equity issuances are planned to fund the project’s expansion? How will the latest production schedule affect the company's projected market share in the North American lithium market? What is the expected impact of the Q2 results on the company’s cash balance and liquidity ratios? Are there any new partnership or off-take agreements that could influence future revenue streams? How does the company's valuation (EV/EBITDA, P/E) compare to other North American lithium producers after the Q2 release? What are the implications for the company's long‑term growth strategy and potential M&A activity in the lithium sector? How does the current price of lithium carbonate and market demand trends affect the company's revenue outlook? What are the potential regulatory or permitting risks that could affect the Thacker Pass project timeline? What is the expected impact of the Q2 results on short‑term stock price volatility and trading volume?