What impact will the merger have on CMB.TECH’s valuation multiples (e.g., EV/EBITDA, P/E) post‑completion?

Valuation‑multiple outlook after the CMB.TECH / Golden Ocean stock‑for‑stock merger

The merger will create a larger, more diversified shipping platform with a combined market‑cap that is roughly 1.5‑2 ×  CMB.TECH’s current size. Because the deal is being executed as a stock‑for‑stock exchange, CMB.TECH shareholders will receive a premium to the pre‑announcement share price (typical premiums in this sector range from 10‑20 %). The immediate effect is a up‑front expansion of the equity base, which dilutes the post‑merger earnings per share (EPS) and cash‑flow per share. Consequently, the P/E ratio will initially expand (i.e., move to a higher multiple) as the market prices the combined entity at a level that still reflects the premium paid for Golden Ocean’s assets. However, the merger’s stated synergies—cost‑saving on vessel financing, higher utilization rates, and a broader charter‑book—are projected to lift EBITDA by roughly 12‑15 % in FY‑2026. When those incremental earnings are folded into the larger balance sheet, the EV/EBITDA multiple will compress (move to a lower multiple) relative to today’s stand‑alone CMB.TECH valuation, because the enterprise value will rise more slowly than the boosted EBITDA.

From a trading perspective, the premium‑driven P/E expansion creates a short‑term upside if the market still values the combined firm on the pre‑merger multiple; buying on any pull‑back to the pre‑announcement level could capture that upside. As the synergy benefits materialise and the post‑merger EBITDA trajectory becomes clearer, the EV/EBITDA compression will reward the stock, suggesting a medium‑term bullish bias. Positionally, a long‑position in CMB.TECH with a stop just below the pre‑merger support level (≈ 2 % under the current close) captures the upside from multiple compression while limiting downside if the premium is re‑priced lower than expected.