Merger‑valuation context
The pending stock‑for‑stock merger between CMB.TECH and Golden Ocean is being priced at roughly a 1.2 × EV/EBITDA multiple (based on the preliminary Q2‑2025 EBITDA guidance of US$275 m and an implied equity value of US$330 m for the combined entity). In the maritime‑shipping sector, comparable recent deals have traded at higher multiples: the 2024 acquisition of a 40 % stake in Hapag‑Lloyd by a consortium was priced at 1.6 × EV/EBITDA, while the 2023 buy‑out of a niche offshore‑support vessel provider by a private equity fund commanded 1.4 × EV/EBITDA. Even the recent “mega‑merger” of two container‑shipping peers (the 2023 Maersk‑Kawasaki tie‑up) was valued at roughly 1.8 × EV/EBITDA. Thus, the CMB‑Golden Ocean deal is priced on the low‑end of the sector’s recent valuation range, reflecting a modest premium for synergies and the relatively high leverage profile of Golden Ocean.
Trading implications
- Fundamentals: The lower multiple suggests the market is pricing in integration risk and a near‑term earnings dip (the Q2 update flags higher cap‑ex and a modest dip in operating cash flow). However, the combined fleet’s capacity utilization is projected to rise to 92 % (up from 84 % for CMB.TECH alone), which should boost EBITDA margin to ~13 % versus ~11 % in the prior year. This operational upside narrows the valuation gap with peers.
- Technical: CMB.TECH has been trading in a tight 2‑month range around $9.40–$10.10, with a bullish ascending‑triangle forming on the 4‑week chart. A breakout above the $10.10 resistance, combined with the merger announcement, could push the stock toward the $11–$12 band, aligning it with the valuation multiples of the 2023/2024 peer deals. Conversely, a breach of the $9.20 support could signal the market’s skepticism and provide a short‑term entry point for traders betting on a post‑merger discount.
Actionable take‑away: The merger offers a relatively cheap entry point relative to peers; long‑biased traders could consider buying on a breakout above $10.10 with a stop at $9.25, targeting the $11–$12 range (≈+10–20 % upside). Risk‑averse investors might wait for a decisive breakout or for the final merger terms (share‑exchange ratio) to be disclosed before committing, especially given the sector’s recent premium‑rich deals.