What are the potential regulatory or antitrust hurdles that could delay or block the merger?

Regulatory & antitrust considerations

The CMB.TECH – Golden Ocean stock‑for‑stock merger sits at the intersection of two heavily‑regulated sectors—maritime shipping and offshore‑energy financing. Because both entities operate globally, the deal will be examined by multiple jurisdictions:

1. U.S. & EU competition watchdogs – The U.S. Department of Justice (DOJ) and the European Commission’s Directorate‑General for Competition will assess whether the combined entity creates a dominant player in the dry‑bulk and offshore‑support vessel markets. If the merged firm’s market‑share in key trade lanes (e.g., Asia‑Europe, South‑America) exceeds the 30‑40 % threshold that typically triggers a “highly concentrated” review, the regulators could demand divestitures of overlapping fleets or charter contracts.

2. National security & foreign‑investment reviews – CMB.TECH is a Chinese‑controlled listed company, while Golden Ocean is a Singapore‑registered group with substantial U.S. and European investors. The U.S. Committee on Foreign Investment in the United States (CFIUS) and China’s Ministry of Commerce may scrutinise the transaction for “control‑over critical maritime assets” and could impose conditions on data‑sharing, vessel‑registration, or impose a “black‑list” on certain ship‑building contracts.

3. Sector‑specific licensing – Both firms hold vessel‑ownership and financing licences from flag‑state authorities (e.g., Panama, Liberia, Singapore). A merger that consolidates these licences may trigger a review by the International Maritime Organization (IMO) and national registries to ensure compliance with safety, environmental, and ballast‑water‑management standards. Any pending licence renewals could be delayed or denied if the regulator perceives a loss of competition or oversight.

Trading implications

Until the merger clears these hurdles, the market will price in a “regulatory risk premium.” Expect heightened volatility in CMB.TECH’s stock and the related offshore‑support indices, especially around the filing of the merger‑notification documents (e.g., Form S‑1, EU “CMR” filing, CFIUS notice). A delay or a forced divestiture would likely depress the equity‑exchange ratio and could trigger a short‑cover rally in CMB.TECH, while a clean clearance would support a bid‑premium on Golden Ocean’s shares.

Actionable steps

- Monitor SEC, DOJ, and EU competition filings for any “request for additional information” (RAFI) notices; a surge in volume or a widening bid‑ask spread often precedes a regulator’s request.

- Track CFIUS and Chinese MOFCOM statements for any geopolitical triggers (e.g., heightened U.S.–China tensions) that could stall the deal.

- Adjust position size to reflect the “regulatory risk” tail—use a tighter stop‑loss (5‑7 % below entry) if you are long CMB.TECH, and consider a hedged short position in Golden Ocean’s ADRs to capture potential spread compression if the merger is forced to unwind.

In short, the merger’s timeline is contingent on clearance from U.S., EU, and Chinese authorities, as well as sector‑specific maritime licences. Until those hurdles are resolved, the trade‑‑risk balance remains tilted toward caution, with a clear upside only after a definitive regulatory green light.