What are the trends in user acquisition, retention, churn, and average revenue per user (ARPU) for the platform?

Trend snapshot – ZipRecruiter (Q2 2025)

The brief from ZipRecruiter’s Q2‑2025 release does not disclose raw user‑growth numbers, but the management commentary points to a “soft” broader labor market that is still supporting the company’s core business. In practice, this environment typically translates into modest net‑new user acquisition (i.e., a low‑single‑digit percentage increase quarter‑over‑quarter) as employers scale hiring cautiously, while job‑seekers remain price‑sensitive. Retention appears steady – the firm has not flagged any uptick in churn, suggesting that existing employer and candidate bases are still finding value in the platform’s matching tools. However, the soft‑labor backdrop can also compress average revenue per user (ARPU), as pricing pressure and lower volume of premium postings tend to hold ARPU flat or slightly below prior quarters.

Trading implications

• Bullish bias: If ZipRecruiter can hold churn at current levels while still adding incremental users, the “sticky” revenue base could support a re‑acceleration of top‑line growth once macro conditions improve. Look for upside if the next guidance revision signals a lift in ARPU or a higher acquisition spend‑to‑revenue efficiency.
  
• Bearish bias: A prolonged soft labor market may keep ARPU under pressure and limit net‑new user inflows, capping revenue expansion. In that scenario, the stock could stay range‑bound or face downside if earnings miss consensus expectations.
  

Actionable take‑away: Keep the position size flexible. If the upcoming shareholder letter reveals a positive shift in ARPU or a concrete plan to boost acquisition efficiency (e.g., new AI‑driven matching features), consider a long‑biased entry on any pull‑back. Conversely, if guidance remains flat and churn‑related metrics are not addressed, a short‑biased or defensive stance may be warranted until macro headwinds ease.