How will the projected 5.5% YoY revenue increase affect Wynn's stock valuation and price target?

Fundamental impact

A 5.5 % YoY lift in Q2 revenue to $933 million signals that Wynn Macau is already out‑of‑step with the modest growth most peers are still struggling to achieve. The boost comes from a resurgence in VIP baccarat (the strongest since 2019) and the rollout of “smart‑gaming” and non‑gaming assets, which should lift ancillary‑revenue margins and diversify earnings away from pure gaming. Assuming the same margin profile as the prior quarter, the 5.5 % top‑line gain translates into roughly a 3‑4 % lift in net earnings (after a modest cap‑ex offset). A 3 % earnings uplift in a company that trades at a ~12 × forward‑earnings PE (typical for premium‑brand operators) would justify a ≈3 % re‑rating of the valuation – moving the stock from a current 12‑month forward EV/EBITDA of ~13× to about 12.5×. In dollar terms, that pushes the intrinsic value from roughly $115 to $119‑120 per share.

Technical and price‑target implications

The market has already priced in the tourism recovery narrative; the stock is trading near its $120 high‑$115 low range on the daily chart, with the 20‑day SMA still below the price, indicating short‑term bullish momentum. The 5.5 % revenue lift should reinforce that trend, likely prompting analysts to raise their consensus price target by $3‑$5 (≈3‑4 %). Momentum‑based traders can look for a break above the $120 resistance on volume as a cue to go long, while a pull‑back to the 20‑day SMA (~$115) could serve as a buying dip. Given the improved earnings outlook and the still‑room‑for upside in the $120‑$125 band, a short‑to‑medium‑term target of $124–$126 is reasonable, with a stop‑loss around $112 to protect against a sudden visitor‑flow reversal.