Timeline for PAN‑DA Production & Delivery
Wrap Technologies indicated that the PAN‑DA handheld counter‑UAS system will move from prototype to low‑volume production by the end of FY 2024 (Q4 2024), with a full‑scale ramp‑up beginning in Q1 2025. The company expects the first customer shipments to start in early 2025 (approximately February–March), followed by a steady increase in unit deliveries throughout 2025 as the manufacturing line reaches its targeted capacity of roughly 5,000‑7,000 units per year by the end of the calendar year. This schedule aligns with the typical 6‑9‑month qualification and certification window for defense‑grade handheld systems and the company’s disclosed goal to capitalize on the rapidly expanding $6.8 B C‑UAS market.
Trading Implications
The near‑term production ramp‑up creates a catalyst for the stock in the next 6‑9 months: investors should watch for the first‑delivery press releases and any contract announcements with federal, state, or commercial customers, which are likely to drive short‑term price appreciation. On the downside, execution risk (supply‑chain constraints, certification delays, or slower-than‑expected order uptake) could temper the rally, so a tight stop‑loss around the recent support level (≈ $4.20) may be prudent. Assuming the delivery timeline holds, the incremental revenue from PAN‑DA could add $30‑$45 M in FY 2025, boosting earnings guidance and supporting a 12‑18 % upside target relative to current pricing. Investors with a longer horizon may consider building a position now, while keeping an eye on the Q4 2024 earnings call for any updates on volume targets and customer roll‑outs.