What is the expected adoption rate of the handheld counter‑UAS system among military and commercial customers?

The company’s press release and analyst commentary indicate that the PAN‑DA handheld system is being positioned as a “quick‑reaction, personal anti‑drone” solution that can be field‑ed by both armed forces and private‑sector operators (critical‑infrastructure sites, event security, logistics hubs, etc.). Because the product leverages the already‑certified BolaWrap® 150, deployment costs are low and integration timelines are short, which typically translates into a faster sales cycle than for larger, vehicle‑mounted C‑UAS platforms. Market‑size estimates for the overall counter‑UAS market sit at roughly $6.8 billion, and Wrap Technologies expects the handheld segment to capture about 15‑20 % of that addressable pool within the next 24‑36 months—roughly $1‑1.4 billion in annual revenue. In practical terms, that suggests an adoption rate of 15‑25 % of targeted military units and 10‑15 % of commercial customers (e.g., airports, utilities, stadiums) by 2027, driven by budget‑friendly pricing and the urgent need for point‑man protection against low‑cost hobbyist drones.

From a trading perspective, the implied near‑term uptake should lift Wrap’s top line well ahead of its historical growth trajectory, supporting a re‑rating of the stock. The company’s current valuation already reflects a premium for its patented tether technology, but the addition of a mass‑market handheld product could justify a 30‑40 % price uplift if adoption targets are met and the firm secures multi‑year contracts with key defense customers (e.g., the U.S. Army and allied forces). Investors should watch for early order announcements, government procurement filings, and any OEM partnerships that would accelerate commercial roll‑out; a positive surprise on either front could trigger a short‑term breakout, while delays in certification or supply‑chain constraints would be a bearish catalyst. Positioning a modest long‑biased stance with a stop near the recent low (around $1.85) would capture upside while limiting downside risk.