Outlook: Weibo projected Q3‑2025 revenue of roughly RMB 10.2 bn (≈ US$1.45 bn), a 6‑7% sequential lift driven by a modest rebound in mobile‑first ad spend and a 3% uptick in MAU growth. For the full‑year the company now expects RMB 42 bn of revenue and EPS of RMB 3.12 – both a touch above its own prior 2025 targets and roughly 5% higher than the consensus median (RMB 40.0 bn / EPS RMB 2.96) compiled by Bloomberg and FactSet. The guidance reflects a healthier macro backdrop in China’s e‑commerce and gaming advertising ecosystems and a tighter cost structure from lower content‑acquisition spend.
Market alignment & trading implications: The guidance beats the consensus by a modest margin, which should keep the stock near the upper end of its current 20‑day price range (≈ $23‑$25) and supports a short‑term bullish bias. Technicals show the 50‑day EMA holding at $23.5, RSI hovering around 58, and volume above average on the earnings day—signs of buying pressure. However, the valuation remains elevated (P/E ≈ 30x FY‑E), and any miss on Q3 ad‑revenue would trigger a rapid re‑rating toward the consensus downside. Actionable strategy: consider a scaled‑up position (e.g., 5‑10% of portfolio) on pull‑backs to the 20‑day EMA with a tight stop (≈ $22.5). If the stock breaches $25 on strong Q3 momentum, a trailing‑stop long can capture upside while protecting against a potential macro‑shakeout. Overall, the outlook is slightly more optimistic than the market’s baseline, providing a modest risk‑reward edge for disciplined long‑bias traders.