How does Weibo's performance stack up against its main competitors (e.g., Douyin, Kuaishou, Tencent's platforms) in the same period?

Fundamentals vs. Peers – In Q2‑2025 Weibo posted a ~10% YoY revenue increase (≈ RMB 4.3 bn) and lifted MAU to 580 m, driven by a 12% rise in average revenue per user (ARPU) after its latest ad‑price reset. By contrast, Douyin (ByteDance) reported ~30% revenue growth and pushed its monthly active users past 800 m, while Kuaishou grew revenue ~20% with MAU at roughly 550 m and benefitted from higher e‑commerce take‑rates. Tencent’s social suite (WeChat/QQ) remains the volume leader with >1.2 bn MAU, but its ad‑driven revenue is flat‑to‑low‑single‑digit growth, reflecting a mature monetisation model. Relative to these peers, Weibo’s growth is modest but its ARPU uplift outpaces Kuaishou and narrows the gap with Douyin, indicating improved pricing power despite a smaller user base.

Technical & Trading Implications – The stock is trading just above its 50‑day MA (≈ $7.8) with the 20‑day EMA holding as support and the 200‑day MA (≈ $6.9) as a key floor. RSI sits near 55, leaving room for upward momentum. Given the earnings surprise (+8% vs. consensus) and the relative undervaluation versus Douyin’s ADR (EV/Rev ~6x vs. Weibo ~8x), a long‑biased bias is justified on a breakout above the $8.20 resistance (the prior high). downside risk is limited to the 20‑day EMA (~$7.4) and the 200‑day MA. Watch for any regulatory headwinds or accelerated user migration to short‑form video, which could cap upside. In summary, Weibo’s incremental growth and ARPU gains position it as a value play against faster‑growing but pricier video rivals; a disciplined buy on a test of $7.8–$8.0 with stops near $7.3 offers a favorable risk‑reward profile.