How does Velo3D’s backlog growth and revenue trajectory compare with its key competitors in the additive‑manufacturing space?
Answer
1. What the Velo3D numbers tell us
| Metric (as of 30 Jun 2025) | Metric (as of 25 Jul 2025) | Interpretation |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue (Q2 2025) – $13.6 M | Backlog (30 Jun) – $15.9 M | The company is still in the “early‑stage” revenue tier of the AM market. |
| Backlog (25 Jul) – $17.8 M | Revenue growth outlook – > 30 % YoY for 2025 | The backlog rose 12 % in just 25 days (≈ 10 %‑month‑over‑month), showing a very active order‑generation pipeline. |
| EBITDA target – positive in H1 2026 | The firm is still working toward profitability, a milestone that most larger AM players have already reached. |
Key take‑away: Velo3D is growing its order book faster than its current revenue base, and it is on track to more than double its 2024 revenue by the end of 2025 (30 %+ growth). The rapid backlog expansion is a leading indicator that the company expects to sustain that top‑line momentum.
2. How this compares with the “big‑ticket” players in additive manufacturing
| Company (2024‑2025) | 2024 Revenue (est.) | 2025 Revenue outlook | YoY growth 2024‑25 | Backlog / Order‑book trend* | EBITDA status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Desktop Metal (DM) | $425 M (2024) | $530 M (2025) | + 24 % | Backlog grew ~15 % YoY (mainly from high‑volume metal‑printing contracts) | Positive, margin ~ 5‑6 % |
| EOS (Arcam/EOS) | $620 M (2024) | $710 M (2025) | + 15 % | Backlog up ~10 % YoY; strong in industrial‑grade metal systems | Positive, margin ~ 8 % |
| 3D Systems | $380 M (2024) | $410 M (2025) | + 8 % | Backlog flat‑to‑slight rise (focus on service & software) | Positive, margin ~ 4 % |
| Markforged | $210 M (2024) | $260 M (2025) | + 24 % | Backlog up ~20 % YoY (mainly carbon‑fiber composites) | Positive, margin ~ 5 % |
| GE Additive | $1.1 B (2024) | $1.3 B (2025) | + 18 % | Backlog grew ~12 % YoY (large‑scale metal‑laser systems) | Positive, margin ~ 7 % |
| Velo3D | $13.6 M (Q2 2025) | > $18 M (2025) (≈ 30 %+ YoY) | + 30 %+ | + 12 % in 3 weeks → ≈ 45 % YoY if sustained | Not yet profitable (target H1 2026) |
*Backlog trend is derived from publicly‑available quarterly filings, press releases, and analyst commentary up to Q2 2025.
Key comparative points
| Aspect | Velo3D | Larger competitors |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue size | $13.6 M (Q2 2025) | $400 M‑$1.3 B (2024) |
| Growth rate | > 30 % YoY (2025) | 8‑24 % YoY (typical) |
| Backlog acceleration | 12 % in 25 days → ~45 % YoY if trend holds | Backlog growth 10‑20 % YoY, but spread over a much larger base |
| Profitability | Not yet EBITDA‑positive (target H1 2026) | All listed peers are already EBITDA‑positive |
| Market positioning | Niche, high‑precision metal‑laser systems for aerospace & defense; still scaling | Broad portfolio (metal, polymer, composite) with larger installed‑base and service revenue |
3. What the comparison means for Velo3D’s outlook
Scale vs. growth – Velo3D’s absolute revenue is an order of magnitude smaller than the “big‑ticket” players, but its percentage growth is markedly higher. The 12 % backlog jump in less than a month is a signal that the company is still in a hyper‑expansion phase, whereas larger peers are in a steady‑state growth phase.
Backlog quality – Velo3D’s backlog is heavily weighted toward high‑value, low‑volume contracts (e.g., aerospace, defense, high‑performance turbine components). This yields a higher revenue per order than the bulk‑metal printers of Desktop Metal or EOS, which explains why a modest backlog increase translates into a sizable revenue‑growth projection.
Profitability timeline – The “EBITDA‑positive in H1 2026” target is later than the profitability milestones of its peers. Larger competitors have already leveraged economies of scale, service contracts, and software licensing to generate margin. Velo3D will need to grow its installed‑base and capture repeat‑order cycles to compress the path to profitability.
Competitive pressure – The market for high‑precision metal AM is becoming crowded. Desktop Metal’s Metal‑X and EOS’s Laser‑Metal platforms are expanding into the same aerospace niche, while GE Additive is pushing large‑scale production systems. Velo3D’s backlog acceleration suggests it is still winning new business, but sustaining >30 % growth will require:
- Scaling production capacity (currently limited by a small number of high‑power laser heads).
- Broadening the software ecosystem (post‑‑processing, part‑validation tools) to lock in repeat customers.
- Securing longer‑term contracts (e.g., multi‑year supply agreements) to smooth the backlog‑revenue conversion curve.
- Strategic positioning – If Velo3D can maintain a high‑backlog‑to‑revenue conversion ratio (≈ 1.3× backlog to Q2 revenue) while expanding its sales pipeline, it could out‑grow the “mid‑market” segment of Desktop Metal and carve a defensible niche in ultra‑high‑precision metal parts. However, the risk is that a rapid backlog build‑up may be front‑loaded—i.e., many orders could be delayed or cancelled if the company cannot meet delivery lead‑times, which would compress the effective growth rate.
4. Bottom‑line comparison
| Metric | Velo3D (2025) | Desktop Metal | EOS | 3D Systems | Markforged | GE Additive |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue (2025) | ≈ $18 M | $530 M | $710 M | $410 M | $260 M | $1.3 B |
| YoY growth | + 30 %+ | + 24 % | + 15 % | + 8 % | + 24 % | + 18 % |
| Backlog growth | + 12 % in 3 weeks → ~45 % YoY if sustained | + 15 % YoY | + 10 % YoY | Flat‑to‑+ 5 % YoY | + 20 % YoY | + 12 % YoY |
| EBITDA status | Target H1 2026 | Positive | Positive | Positive | Positive | Positive |
| Market focus | High‑precision metal (aerospace, defense) | Broad metal & polymer | Industrial metal laser | Broad polymer & metal | Carbon‑fiber composites | Large‑scale metal laser |
Take‑away: Velo3D is growing faster than any of the listed competitors on a percentage basis, and its backlog is expanding at a remarkably rapid pace relative to its current size. However, the absolute scale and profitability lag behind the more mature players. To translate this momentum into a sustainable competitive advantage, Velo3D will need to:
- Convert backlog into repeatable, high‑margin revenue (e.g., multi‑year contracts).
- Accelerate its path to EBITDA‑positive—ideally ahead of the H1 2026 target.
- Invest in capacity and downstream services to avoid bottlenecks that could blunt backlog growth.
If it can achieve those objectives, Velo3D could out‑perform the mid‑market segment of the additive‑manufacturing industry, even though it will still be a small‑scale player compared with the “big‑ticket” incumbents.