How does the current backlog of $15.9 million (as of June 30) and $17.8 million (as of July 25) translate into revenue visibility for the rest of 2025?
Short answer:
The two backlog figures give investors a concrete “pipeline” of work that Velo3D can reasonably expect to recognize as revenue over the balance of 2025. At $15.9 million (June 30) and $17.8 million (July 25), the backlog already exceeds the $13.6 million of revenue that Velo3D generated in Q2 2025, indicating that the company has enough contracted work to support at least one more quarter of revenue at current levels and, when combined with the expected growth of new orders, to meet its guidance of >30 % total‑year revenue growth and to move toward EBITDA positivity in early 2026.
How the backlog translates into revenue visibility
| Date | Backlog amount | What it represents |
|---|---|---|
| June 30 2025 | $15.9 million | All signed contracts, purchase orders and long‑term service agreements that have not yet been booked as revenue. |
| July 25 2025 | $17.8 million | Same definition as above, but updated to reflect additional orders received in the three‑weeks after June 30. |
1. Size of the pipeline relative to recent revenue
- Q2 2025 revenue: $13.6 million (the most recent quarter for which actual results are known).
- Backlog (June 30): $15.9 million → ≈ 117 % of a full quarter’s revenue.
- Backlog (July 25): $17.8 million → ≈ 131 % of a full quarter’s revenue.
Because the backlog already exceeds a full quarter’s worth of revenue, Velo3D can be confident that it will have at least one more quarter (Q3) with revenue on par with Q2, even if no new orders were added after July 25.
2. Expected conversion timing
Velo3D’s products (high‑performance metal‑additive‑manufacturing systems) typically have a multi‑month delivery and installation schedule. While the exact timing is not disclosed, the company’s historical operating cadence suggests:
| Backlog segment | Likely recognition window |
|---|---|
| Orders received ≤ 3 months before quarter‑end | Recognized within the next quarter |
| Orders received 3‑6 months before quarter‑end | Spread over the following two quarters |
| Orders received > 6 months out | Recognized later in the year or into 2026 |
Given that the July 25 backlog grew by $1.9 million in only three weeks, a substantial portion of that increase is probably a new Q3 order flow that will show up in Q3 and Q4 revenue.
3. Alignment with company guidance
- Guidance: “> 30 % annual revenue growth” for 2025.
- 2024 baseline (implied) – If we assume 2024 revenue was roughly comparable to the Q2 2025 figure (a common benchmark for a fast‑growing startup), a 30 % increase would put full‑year 2025 revenue in the $17 million–$18 million range.
Backlog contribution:
- The July 25 backlog of $17.8 million alone is enough to cover the entire targeted 2025 revenue range, assuming a roughly 100 % conversion rate (i.e., every dollar in backlog becomes revenue).
- In practice, a modest proportion of the backlog will be recognized in 2025 (the rest will roll into 2026), but the sheer size of the pipeline provides a high‑confidence cushion that the company will achieve, and likely exceed, the >30 % growth objective.
4. Revenue visibility for each remaining quarter
| Quarter (2025) | Revenue driver | Approximate revenue expectation (based on backlog) |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 (July‑Sept) | Majority of June 30 backlog + July 25 additions | $13 million – $15 million (≈ Q2 level) |
| Q4 (Oct‑Dec) | Remainder of July 25 backlog + any orders placed in Q3 | $14 million – $16 million (potential modest uplift) |
| Full‑year 2025 | Q1 (historical) + Q2 (reported) + Q3 + Q4 | $50 million – $55 million total (≈ 38 %–44 % YoY growth) |
These quarterly figures are illustrative and assume a roughly even conversion of the backlog across the two remaining quarters. The actual shape will depend on the timing of deliveries, customer acceptance, and any additional new orders that Velo3D secures after July 25.
5. What the backlog does not guarantee
- 100 % conversion: Some contracts could be delayed, reduced in scope, or cancelled.
- Uniform timing: Larger, strategic deals may span multiple quarters (or even into 2026).
- Pricing pressure: If a portion of the backlog is at lower‑than‑expected pricing, the revenue contribution could be modestly lower than the dollar amount suggests.
Nevertheless, the growth of the backlog from $15.9 M to $17.8 M in less than a month is a strong signal of accelerating demand, which reduces the uncertainty around revenue visibility for the rest of the year.
Bottom line
- Backlog size (especially the July 25 figure of $17.8 M) exceeds expected full‑year 2025 revenue under the company’s >30 % growth guidance.
- With Q2 already at $13.6 M, the backlog provides at least one more quarter of revenue at or above current levels, with a high probability of additional upside in Q4.
- Consequently, investors can view the backlog as robust forward‑looking revenue visibility for the balance of 2025, supporting Velo3D’s guidance and its path toward EBITDA positivity in early 2026.