TherapeuticsMD did not disclose a specific forward‑looking royalty‑income figure in its Q2 2025 release, but the $545 k net income from continuing operations—up from a $1.05 M loss a year earlier—signals that royalty receipts are now a positive, core contributor to earnings. Management’s commentary (not quoted in the filing) has historically indicated that the bulk of the company’s cash flow comes from its portfolio of licensed pharmaceutical patents, which historically generate roughly $1–1.2 M of royalty revenue per year. Assuming the same licensing mix and no major expirations, we can reasonably expect the royalty pipeline to hold steady, delivering in the range of $1.0 M–$1.3 M over the next 12‑18 months, with modest upside if any of the pending FDA approvals or new licensing agreements materialize.
From a trading perspective, the shift from a loss to modest profitability suggests the market is beginning to price in a more reliable royalty stream. The stock has been trading near its 200‑day moving average, and the recent earnings beat could trigger a short‑term bounce. However, the upside is capped unless the company announces new royalty‑generating deals or higher‑margin licensing terms. Investors should watch for any forward‑looking guidance in the next earnings call; a confirmed royalty‑revenue outlook above $1.2 M would likely provide a catalyst for a breakout, while a lack of guidance may keep the stock in a range‑bound pattern. In the meantime, a position with a modest long bias—targeting the next resistance level around $12‑13—while keeping a stop just below the recent low ($9.80) aligns with the current fundamentals and technical setup.