Answer to the question
TherapeuticsMD did not issue any earnings guidance for the third quarter (Q3âŻ2025) or for the fullâyear 2025 period in its secondâquarter release. The announcement only presented the Q2âŻ2025 results and highlighted the swing from a net loss in Q1 to a modest net income of $0.05 per share in Q2, with no forwardâlooking earnings estimates.
Trading implications
Fundamentals: The turnaround to profitabilityâalbeit on a thin $0.05âŻEPS basisâshows the royalty portfolio is beginning to generate cash flow, but the lack of guidance signals management uncertainty about future royalty streams, especially as the companyâs pipeline and licensing agreements mature. Until the next earnings call provides a clearer outlook, the upside is limited and the risk of a miss remains elevated.
Technical view: TXMD has been trading in a relatively tight range around the $1.00â$1.30 band after the Q2 beat. The absence of guidance removes a catalyst that could have propelled the stock higher; thus, the price is likely to remain rangeâbound until a forwardâlooking update (e.g., Q3 results or a FYâ2025 earnings call) occurs. A breakout above $1.30 with volume could indicate the market is pricing in stronger royalty growth, while a break below $1.00 may reflect concerns about sustainability of the Q2 profit.
Actionable insight: Given the current lack of guidance, a neutralâtoâdefensive stance is prudent. Consider a tightâstopâloss around $1.00 if you are long, or a sellâstop near $1.30 if you are short, to capture any breakout on the next earnings update. Position sizing should be modest until the Q3âŻ2025 resultsâor a FYâ2025 outlookâprovide the missing forwardâlooking guidance that can justify a directional move.