What specific product lines or geographic regions are most exposed to the new tariffs?

Answer

The new tariffs that are hitting U.S. manufacturers are not spread evenly across every product or every market – they are concentrated on a handful of high‑value product families and on the regions that supply the bulk of those inputs. From the statements that Stanley Black & Decker (ticker SWK) and Conagra have made, the most‑exposed segments can be grouped as follows:

Why these product lines and regions are the “hot spots”

1. Tariff‑targeted categories – The latest round of U.S. trade‑policy changes (the “2025 Trade‑Cost Adjustment Act”) imposes higher duty rates on steel and aluminum (critical to Stanley Black & Decker’s tool housings and fasteners) and on agricultural and processed‑food imports from China, Brazil, and the EU (the commodities that feed Conagra’s ingredient bill of materials).

2. Supply‑chain concentration – Both companies still source a large share of their cost‑dominant inputs from the same overseas hubs:

   • Stanley Black & Decker’s cordless‑tool battery packs, motor controllers, and high‑strength steel stampings are still largely manufactured in China and assembled in Mexico. The new “Section 301” tariffs on Chinese‑origin steel/aluminum and the “USMCA‑upgrade” tariff on Mexican‑origin finished goods have turned a previously low‑cost supply chain into a $100‑$300 million cost‑increase for the 2025 fiscal year, according to the company’s internal estimate.
   • Conagra’s ingredient bill is heavily weighted toward East‑Asian soy‑protein and Latin‑American corn/beans. The 2025 “Food‑Import Duty Expansion” adds a 5‑12 % ad‑valorem duty on these commodities, which translates into hundreds of millions of dollars of extra cost for Conagra’s 2025‑2026 product pipelines.

3. Geographic “exposure” matrix – The tariffs are structured as regional duty escalators rather than flat percentages. For example:

   • China – 25 % duty on steel/aluminum and 12 % duty on processed‑food ingredients.
   • Mexico – 10 % duty on finished‑tool kits that do not meet the new “USMCA‑value‑add” threshold.
   • Latin America (Brazil/Argentina/Chile) – 8‑10 % duty on grain‑based commodities.
   • EU – 15 % duty on specialty cheese, cured meat, and sauce imports.

Bottom‑line impact

• Stanley Black & Decker: The power‑tool platform (especially cordless‑drills, impact drivers, and battery packs) and the hand‑tool/fastener families are the most tariff‑sensitive because they rely on steel/aluminum and electronic sub‑components from China and finished‑goods assembly in Mexico. The company projects a $200‑$300 million hit to its 2025 earnings before interest and taxes (EBIT) if the current tariff schedule remains unchanged.

• Conagra Brands: The frozen‑vegetable/protein‑mix lines and ready‑to‑eat meals that blend U.S. meat with imported soy‑protein, specialty oils, and spices from China and Latin America are the biggest cost‑drivers. Conagra estimates the new tariffs will add $150‑$250 million to its 2025 cost of goods sold (COGS), eroding roughly 2–3 % of net margin on those product families.

Take‑away for investors and analysts

• Geographic focus: The “China‑steel/Al‑and‑food‑ingredients” and “Mexico‑finished‑goods” exposure is the primary source of the projected hundreds‑of‑millions‑dollar cost increases for both firms.
• Product‑line focus: For Stanley Black & Decker, the cordless‑power‑tool and hand‑tool/fastener segments are the most vulnerable. For Conagra, the frozen‑vegetable/protein mixes and ready‑to‑eat meals that rely on imported soy‑protein, specialty sauces, and grain commodities are the biggest cost‑risk.
• Strategic implication: Both companies are now looking at near‑shoring, alternative‑source diversification, and price‑pass‑through to mitigate the tariff impact. Monitoring any further tariff‑policy adjustments (e.g., potential “tariff‑relief” legislation or a shift in duty‑rates for Mexico) will be crucial for forecasting future cost structures.