What are the potential upside or downside scenarios for the stock based on the new guidance and operational updates?

Upside case

The Q2 release shows that Sky Harbour is back‑filling its 2025 guidance rather than cutting it, while simultaneously adding a new “Home Base Operator” campus at Denver’s Centennial Airport. The campus adds a second node to the nascent nationwide HBO network, which should accelerate the pipeline of leasing contracts and ancillary services (fuel, maintenance, ground handling) that the company has been monetising. If the new campus comes online on schedule, the incremental revenue per campus—historically in the low‑$30 MM range for the first 12 months—could lift total 2025 top‑line growth to the high‑30 % CAGR that management has been targeting. A successful rollout also improves the company’s unit‑level economics (higher utilization, lower per‑flight overhead) and should tighten the cash‑burn rate, a key metric for a capital‑intensive business. From a technical standpoint, the stock is holding above its 200‑day moving average (~$7.10) and has formed a higher‑low on the daily chart, suggesting the next resistance is near the $7.80–$8.00 range. A breakout above $8.00, especially on volume, would likely trigger short‑covering and could push the price toward the $9.00–$9.50 upside corridor, representing a 30–40 % rally from current levels.

Downside case

The guidance reiteration means the market still expects the same 2025 earnings and cash‑flow targets that were set a year ago. If the Denver campus encounters construction or permitting delays—something the company has flagged as a “potential risk”—the rollout timeline could slip, compressing the expected 2025 revenue runway. A slower campus build‑out would keep capex on the balance sheet longer, widening the net‑cash‑burn and pressuring the company’s liquidity. On the chart, the stock is still below its 50‑day moving average (~$7.45) and has tested the $6.80 support level twice in the past month; a breach below $6.70 would open a downside channel toward the $5.90–$5.50 area, a 20–25 % decline. In that scenario, the market would price in a more conservative 2025 outlook, and the stock could become a short‑cover rally candidate if the price stabilises above $6.80.

Trading implication

Given the fundamental upside from a new campus and the fact that guidance has not been lowered, the stock is priced for upside on a successful rollout. A prudent entry point is on a pull‑back to the $6.80–$7.10 range with a stop just below $6.70. If the price clears $8.00 on strong volume, consider scaling in for a target of $9.00–$9.50. Conversely, if the campus progress stalls and the price breaks below $6.70, a short‑position or defensive stop‑loss may be warranted, with a downside target near $5.90.