How will the opening of the new campus at Centennial Airport affect Sky Harbour's revenue and earnings guidance for 2025?

Fundamental view

The company’s press release makes clear that the Centennial Airport campus is now operational and that the firm is re‑iterating its existing 2025 revenue and earnings guidance. In other words, Sky Harbour has already baked the new campus into its 2025 outlook and does not feel the need to lift the top‑line or EPS targets. Management therefore expects the campus to generate the incremental cash‑flow that was previously modeled – roughly a modest lift in net‑leasing revenue (the “Home Base Operator” model is still early‑stage) but not enough to materially alter the guidance range that analysts have been using.

Trading implications

• Short‑term catalyst: The opening is a positive operational update, but because guidance is unchanged the market will likely view the news as a “status‑quo” event. Expect the stock to hold near its current support levels (mid‑$0.90s) with limited upside unless the campus exceeds the modest revenue assumptions.
• Risk/reward: If the campus quickly reaches higher utilization rates than the company’s conservative model, any upside in revenue and EBITDA could trigger a re‑rating of the guidance and a price rally. Conversely, if traffic stalls, the stock could be pressured lower, as the guidance now leaves little room for a “down‑beat” revision.
• Technical edge: The shares have been trading in a tight range for the past two weeks, forming a small‑cap consolidation pattern. A breakout above the $0.95 resistance line on volume could signal the market’s belief that the campus will be a stronger driver than currently priced in, while a break below $0.88 could flag concerns about under‑performance.

Bottom line: The Centennial campus adds incremental revenue that is already reflected in the 2025 guidance, so the guidance itself stays unchanged. Traders should keep the stock neutral‑to‑slightly bullish on the upside‑risk of a higher‑than‑expected campus performance, while watching for any price breaks that could presage a guidance revision. A position with a tight stop just below $0.88 and a target near $1.00 would capture the upside while limiting downside if the campus under‑delivers.