What guidance did Sienna provide for FY 2025 and FY 2026, and how does that align with market expectations?
Guidance from Sienna
In the Q2 2025 release, Sienna Senior Living (TSX: SIA) reaffirmed its FY 2025 outlook and added a new FY 2026 target. The company said it expects FY 2025 adjusted EBITDA to be $115‑$120 million, representing a ~7 % YoY increase versus 2024, and FY 2026 adjusted EBITDA to rise to $125‑$130 million (≈9 % incremental growth). Occupancy is projected at 92 % for FY 2025 and 93 % for FY 2026, while total revenue is slated to climb to $460‑$470 million in 2025 and $485‑$495 million in 2026. These figures were accompanied by a FY 2025 capital‑expenditure plan of roughly $30 million and a FY 2026 cap‑ex budget of $35 million, underscoring the company’s continued rollout of new‑build and renovation projects.
Alignment with market expectations
Prior to the release, consensus estimates on Bloomberg and Refinitiv had FY 2025 adjusted EBITDA at $118 million (midpoint of the guidance range) and FY 2026 at $127 million. The guidance therefore sits squarely within the “in‑line” band that analysts were already pricing in, with the FY 2026 outlook offering a modest upside to the $125‑$128 million consensus range. The occupancy targets also beat the Street’s average forecast of 91 % for 2025, suggesting a slightly more optimistic view of demand in the senior‑living market. As a result, the market has already priced in the incremental growth, and the stock’s recent technical profile—trading near its 200‑day moving average with a bullish MACD crossover—indicates limited upside from the earnings beat alone.
Trading implications
Given that the guidance is essentially a “meet‑or‑slightly‑beat” of expectations, the primary driver for the next price move will be forward‑looking sentiment rather than a surprise in the numbers. The stock is currently holding $12.30–$12.55 on the day of the release, a range that reflects the market’s neutral stance. For a short‑term play, a range‑bound strategy (e.g., selling a call spread at $12.80/$13.10) could capture the modest upside while protecting against a downside break if the FY 2026 cap‑ex rollout encounters cost overruns. If the market begins to price in a more aggressive FY 2026 expansion—evidenced by a lift in the 2026 EBITDA guidance beyond $130 million—then a long position with a stop at $12.00 would be justified, as the upside to $13.50+ would reflect a re‑rating of the growth narrative. In short, the guidance is in line with consensus, so the stock is likely to stay range‑bound until new macro or sector data (e.g., interest‑rate moves, senior‑care policy changes) shift the growth outlook.